Constitutional eligibility rules requiring natural-born U.S. citizenship remain the dominant barrier, as Elon Musk was born in South Africa and naturalized in 2002. Traders assign 96.7% probability to no announcement before 2027 because Musk has shown no intent to pursue candidacy and has instead directed efforts toward midterm support through America PAC spending exceeding $100 million on Republican turnout operations. His prior roles advising on government efficiency, brief party-formation signals in 2025 that were later de-emphasized, and public focus on business operations further align with this consensus. The only plausible shifts would involve a ratified constitutional amendment or an abrupt reversal in Musk’s stated priorities within the narrow remaining window.