Israel maintains a longstanding naval blockade of Gaza that bars unauthorized vessels from approaching the territory, and recent Global Sumud Flotilla missions have followed the established pattern of interception by Israeli forces in international waters. Multiple convoys launched since April 2026 were stopped near Greece, with activists detained and vessels redirected, while fresh departures from Turkey on May 14 remain hundreds of nautical miles offshore with limited time before the May 31 deadline. Traders assign near-certainty to the outcome because every comparable civilian aid effort in the past decade has been prevented from landing, reflecting the blockade’s consistent enforcement. The only plausible shifts would involve an unprecedented Israeli policy reversal or successful diplomatic intervention that alters the rules of engagement before the cutoff.