Tropical Storm Dolly formed as a minimal system with 35-40 knot winds but rapidly weakened into an open tropical wave by late August 28, 2026, due to increasing southwesterly wind shear and dry mid-level air that disrupted its closed circulation, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center satellite and buoy data. These hostile atmospheric conditions, combined with the system's fast westward motion near 25 mph, have suppressed organization despite warm sea surface temperatures, making any intensification to hurricane strength (64+ knots on the Saffir-Simpson scale) highly improbable. The NHC currently assesses near-zero redevelopment odds over the next 48 hours and only 10% through seven days as the remnants approach the Leeward Islands. While a slight chance of regeneration exists if shear relaxes after interaction with the islands, model consensus and current environmental data strongly support the market's 97.5% "No" consensus.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
3% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 3, 2026
3% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 3, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly formed as a minimal system with 35-40 knot winds but rapidly weakened into an open tropical wave by late August 28, 2026, due to increasing southwesterly wind shear and dry mid-level air that disrupted its closed circulation, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center satellite and buoy data. These hostile atmospheric conditions, combined with the system's fast westward motion near 25 mph, have suppressed organization despite warm sea surface temperatures, making any intensification to hurricane strength (64+ knots on the Saffir-Simpson scale) highly improbable. The NHC currently assesses near-zero redevelopment odds over the next 48 hours and only 10% through seven days as the remnants approach the Leeward Islands. While a slight chance of regeneration exists if shear relaxes after interaction with the islands, model consensus and current environmental data strongly support the market's 97.5% "No" consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Thị trường mở: Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Khối lượng
$725Ngày kết thúc
Sep 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly formed as a minimal system with 35-40 knot winds but rapidly weakened into an open tropical wave by late August 28, 2026, due to increasing southwesterly wind shear and dry mid-level air that disrupted its closed circulation, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center satellite and buoy data. These hostile atmospheric conditions, combined with the system's fast westward motion near 25 mph, have suppressed organization despite warm sea surface temperatures, making any intensification to hurricane strength (64+ knots on the Saffir-Simpson scale) highly improbable. The NHC currently assesses near-zero redevelopment odds over the next 48 hours and only 10% through seven days as the remnants approach the Leeward Islands. While a slight chance of regeneration exists if shear relaxes after interaction with the islands, model consensus and current environmental data strongly support the market's 97.5% "No" consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Khối lượng
$725Ngày kết thúc
Sep 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Dolly formed as a minimal system with 35-40 knot winds but rapidly weakened into an open tropical wave by late August 28, 2026, due to increasing southwesterly wind shear and dry mid-level air that disrupted its closed circulation, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center satellite and buoy data. These hostile atmospheric conditions, combined with the system's fast westward motion near 25 mph, have suppressed organization despite warm sea surface temperatures, making any intensification to hurricane strength (64+ knots on the Saffir-Simpson scale) highly improbable. The NHC currently assesses near-zero redevelopment odds over the next 48 hours and only 10% through seven days as the remnants approach the Leeward Islands. While a slight chance of regeneration exists if shear relaxes after interaction with the islands, model consensus and current environmental data strongly support the market's 97.5% "No" consensus.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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