Tropical Storm Norbert’s current intensity of 45–50 knots and the National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast of steady weakening underpin the 79% market-implied probability it will not reach hurricane strength. Mid-level dry air and west-southwesterly vertical wind shear continue to limit organized deep convection and limit further intensification in the central Eastern Pacific. Official guidance shows little change or gradual decline over the next 24–36 hours, followed by degeneration into a post-tropical remnant low by roughly 60 hours. Recent satellite and scatterometer data confirm an asymmetric wind field with peak winds remaining below the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson threshold. With no favorable environmental windows expected before dissipation, trader consensus aligns with the NHC outlook that the storm will not strengthen to hurricane status.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill Tropical Storm Norbert strengthen to a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Norbert strengthen to a hurricane?
36% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 21, 2026
36% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 21, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.Tropical Storm Norbert’s current intensity of 45–50 knots and the National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast of steady weakening underpin the 79% market-implied probability it will not reach hurricane strength. Mid-level dry air and west-southwesterly vertical wind shear continue to limit organized deep convection and limit further intensification in the central Eastern Pacific. Official guidance shows little change or gradual decline over the next 24–36 hours, followed by degeneration into a post-tropical remnant low by roughly 60 hours. Recent satellite and scatterometer data confirm an asymmetric wind field with peak winds remaining below the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson threshold. With no favorable environmental windows expected before dissipation, trader consensus aligns with the NHC outlook that the storm will not strengthen to hurricane status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Thị trường mở: Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Khối lượng
$313Ngày kết thúc
Sep 22, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.Tropical Storm Norbert’s current intensity of 45–50 knots and the National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast of steady weakening underpin the 79% market-implied probability it will not reach hurricane strength. Mid-level dry air and west-southwesterly vertical wind shear continue to limit organized deep convection and limit further intensification in the central Eastern Pacific. Official guidance shows little change or gradual decline over the next 24–36 hours, followed by degeneration into a post-tropical remnant low by roughly 60 hours. Recent satellite and scatterometer data confirm an asymmetric wind field with peak winds remaining below the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson threshold. With no favorable environmental windows expected before dissipation, trader consensus aligns with the NHC outlook that the storm will not strengthen to hurricane status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Khối lượng
$313Ngày kết thúc
Sep 22, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Norbert’s current intensity of 45–50 knots and the National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast of steady weakening underpin the 79% market-implied probability it will not reach hurricane strength. Mid-level dry air and west-southwesterly vertical wind shear continue to limit organized deep convection and limit further intensification in the central Eastern Pacific. Official guidance shows little change or gradual decline over the next 24–36 hours, followed by degeneration into a post-tropical remnant low by roughly 60 hours. Recent satellite and scatterometer data confirm an asymmetric wind field with peak winds remaining below the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson threshold. With no favorable environmental windows expected before dissipation, trader consensus aligns with the NHC outlook that the storm will not strengthen to hurricane status.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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