Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by October’s 0.3% core CPI rise for the third straight month and broader price increases, have locked in market-implied odds above 90% for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve hike at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting. Officials including Governor Christopher Waller and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan have signaled support for tightening to restore the 2% target, with the federal funds rate currently at a 3.75-4.00% range after the September increase. This drives the 96.2% “Yes” consensus for at least one more 2026 move, as trader capital reflects the data trajectory and policy stance. Tail risks remain limited but include an unexpectedly sharp cooling in November data or sudden labor-market deterioration that could prompt a pause.