The overwhelming trader consensus against any US state legislature voting on secession by June 30, 2026, reflects entrenched constitutional barriers and the absence of organized political movements advancing such measures. Supreme Court precedent established in the 19th century holds that unilateral secession lacks constitutional basis, requiring either mutual agreement among states or a formal amendment process. Current legislative calendars across states emphasize routine matters such as appropriations, regulatory reforms, and election procedures rather than sovereignty resolutions. While isolated bills occasionally appear in committee during periods of partisan tension, none have progressed to floor votes amid institutional checks, divided chambers, and historical precedent showing near-zero success for secession-related proposals. Realistic scenarios that could still alter this outlook include an acute national crisis triggering coordinated state-level sovereignty debates or procedural maneuvers in a single legislature, though both remain outside prevailing political dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年6月30日前，美國州議會有投票決定分離嗎？
2026年6月30日前，美國州議會有投票決定分離嗎？
是
$28,683 交易量
$28,683 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$28,683 交易量
$28,683 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The overwhelming trader consensus against any US state legislature voting on secession by June 30, 2026, reflects entrenched constitutional barriers and the absence of organized political movements advancing such measures. Supreme Court precedent established in the 19th century holds that unilateral secession lacks constitutional basis, requiring either mutual agreement among states or a formal amendment process. Current legislative calendars across states emphasize routine matters such as appropriations, regulatory reforms, and election procedures rather than sovereignty resolutions. While isolated bills occasionally appear in committee during periods of partisan tension, none have progressed to floor votes amid institutional checks, divided chambers, and historical precedent showing near-zero success for secession-related proposals. Realistic scenarios that could still alter this outlook include an acute national crisis triggering coordinated state-level sovereignty debates or procedural maneuvers in a single legislature, though both remain outside prevailing political dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ET
交易量
$28,683結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The overwhelming trader consensus against any US state legislature voting on secession by June 30, 2026, reflects entrenched constitutional barriers and the absence of organized political movements advancing such measures. Supreme Court precedent established in the 19th century holds that unilateral secession lacks constitutional basis, requiring either mutual agreement among states or a formal amendment process. Current legislative calendars across states emphasize routine matters such as appropriations, regulatory reforms, and election procedures rather than sovereignty resolutions. While isolated bills occasionally appear in committee during periods of partisan tension, none have progressed to floor votes amid institutional checks, divided chambers, and historical precedent showing near-zero success for secession-related proposals. Realistic scenarios that could still alter this outlook include an acute national crisis triggering coordinated state-level sovereignty debates or procedural maneuvers in a single legislature, though both remain outside prevailing political dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$28,683結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The overwhelming trader consensus against any US state legislature voting on secession by June 30, 2026, reflects entrenched constitutional barriers and the absence of organized political movements advancing such measures. Supreme Court precedent established in the 19th century holds that unilateral secession lacks constitutional basis, requiring either mutual agreement among states or a formal amendment process. Current legislative calendars across states emphasize routine matters such as appropriations, regulatory reforms, and election procedures rather than sovereignty resolutions. While isolated bills occasionally appear in committee during periods of partisan tension, none have progressed to floor votes amid institutional checks, divided chambers, and historical precedent showing near-zero success for secession-related proposals. Realistic scenarios that could still alter this outlook include an acute national crisis triggering coordinated state-level sovereignty debates or procedural maneuvers in a single legislature, though both remain outside prevailing political dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions