California's 11th congressional district, encompassing most of San Francisco, maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in a Cook PVI of D+36 and voter registration favoring Democrats by roughly 56 points. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates Scott Wiener and Connie Chan to the November general election, while Republican contenders combined for under 6 percent of the vote. This structural alignment, consistent with the district's 81-point Democratic margin in 2024, drives the market's 98.2 percent consensus for a Democratic winner. A Republican victory would require unprecedented shifts in turnout or candidate viability that have no recent precedent in the district.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$21,763 交易量
$21,763 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
3%
$21,763 交易量
$21,763 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
$14,980 交易量
98%
Republican Party
$6,783 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th congressional district, encompassing most of San Francisco, maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in a Cook PVI of D+36 and voter registration favoring Democrats by roughly 56 points. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates Scott Wiener and Connie Chan to the November general election, while Republican contenders combined for under 6 percent of the vote. This structural alignment, consistent with the district's 81-point Democratic margin in 2024, drives the market's 98.2 percent consensus for a Democratic winner. A Republican victory would require unprecedented shifts in turnout or candidate viability that have no recent precedent in the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$21,763結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th congressional district, encompassing most of San Francisco, maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in a Cook PVI of D+36 and voter registration favoring Democrats by roughly 56 points. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates Scott Wiener and Connie Chan to the November general election, while Republican contenders combined for under 6 percent of the vote. This structural alignment, consistent with the district's 81-point Democratic margin in 2024, drives the market's 98.2 percent consensus for a Democratic winner. A Republican victory would require unprecedented shifts in turnout or candidate viability that have no recent precedent in the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$21,763結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 11th congressional district, encompassing most of San Francisco, maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in a Cook PVI of D+36 and voter registration favoring Democrats by roughly 56 points. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates Scott Wiener and Connie Chan to the November general election, while Republican contenders combined for under 6 percent of the vote. This structural alignment, consistent with the district's 81-point Democratic margin in 2024, drives the market's 98.2 percent consensus for a Democratic winner. A Republican victory would require unprecedented shifts in turnout or candidate viability that have no recent precedent in the district.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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