The solidly Republican partisan composition of Texas' 31st congressional district, reflected in its R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent support for GOP candidates in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Republican hold. Incumbent John Carter secured the party's nomination in the March 3 primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote, avoiding a runoff and demonstrating strong base support ahead of the November general election. Democrat Justin Early advanced from the opposing primary, yet faces structural headwinds in a district where Republican presidential and Senate margins exceeded 18 points in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, underscoring limited path-to-victory scenarios for the challenger absent major national shifts or turnout surprises that could compress the current implied probability gap.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$13,946 交易量
$13,946 交易量
2026-11-03
共和黨
84%
民主黨
16%
$13,946 交易量
$13,946 交易量
2026-11-03
共和黨
$8,720 交易量
84%
民主黨
$5,226 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Republican partisan composition of Texas' 31st congressional district, reflected in its R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent support for GOP candidates in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Republican hold. Incumbent John Carter secured the party's nomination in the March 3 primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote, avoiding a runoff and demonstrating strong base support ahead of the November general election. Democrat Justin Early advanced from the opposing primary, yet faces structural headwinds in a district where Republican presidential and Senate margins exceeded 18 points in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, underscoring limited path-to-victory scenarios for the challenger absent major national shifts or turnout surprises that could compress the current implied probability gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$13,946結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The solidly Republican partisan composition of Texas' 31st congressional district, reflected in its R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent support for GOP candidates in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Republican hold. Incumbent John Carter secured the party's nomination in the March 3 primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote, avoiding a runoff and demonstrating strong base support ahead of the November general election. Democrat Justin Early advanced from the opposing primary, yet faces structural headwinds in a district where Republican presidential and Senate margins exceeded 18 points in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, underscoring limited path-to-victory scenarios for the challenger absent major national shifts or turnout surprises that could compress the current implied probability gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$13,946結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The solidly Republican partisan composition of Texas' 31st congressional district, reflected in its R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent support for GOP candidates in recent cycles, anchors trader consensus on a Republican hold. Incumbent John Carter secured the party's nomination in the March 3 primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote, avoiding a runoff and demonstrating strong base support ahead of the November general election. Democrat Justin Early advanced from the opposing primary, yet faces structural headwinds in a district where Republican presidential and Senate margins exceeded 18 points in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, underscoring limited path-to-victory scenarios for the challenger absent major national shifts or turnout surprises that could compress the current implied probability gap.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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