Recent July 2026 maritime incidents at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, involving water cannons, vessel maneuvers, and a reported baton injury to a Philippine sailor, have sustained elevated friction without crossing into sustained naval or air combat. Bilateral protests occurred alongside ASEAN-hosted talks where ministers reported significant progress toward a South China Sea Code of Conduct, with hopes for conclusion by year-end. Philippine President Marcos signaled interest in resetting ties, while joint U.S.-Philippines-Japan maritime exercises underscored alliance deterrence. Traders appear to view these patterns—persistent coast guard harassment offset by active diplomacy and external balancing—as lowering the near-term probability of a broader military clash before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
34% 機率
$113,504 交易量
$113,504 交易量
2026-12-31
是
34% 機率
$113,504 交易量
$113,504 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent July 2026 maritime incidents at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, involving water cannons, vessel maneuvers, and a reported baton injury to a Philippine sailor, have sustained elevated friction without crossing into sustained naval or air combat. Bilateral protests occurred alongside ASEAN-hosted talks where ministers reported significant progress toward a South China Sea Code of Conduct, with hopes for conclusion by year-end. Philippine President Marcos signaled interest in resetting ties, while joint U.S.-Philippines-Japan maritime exercises underscored alliance deterrence. Traders appear to view these patterns—persistent coast guard harassment offset by active diplomacy and external balancing—as lowering the near-term probability of a broader military clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ET
交易量
$113,504結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent July 2026 maritime incidents at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, involving water cannons, vessel maneuvers, and a reported baton injury to a Philippine sailor, have sustained elevated friction without crossing into sustained naval or air combat. Bilateral protests occurred alongside ASEAN-hosted talks where ministers reported significant progress toward a South China Sea Code of Conduct, with hopes for conclusion by year-end. Philippine President Marcos signaled interest in resetting ties, while joint U.S.-Philippines-Japan maritime exercises underscored alliance deterrence. Traders appear to view these patterns—persistent coast guard harassment offset by active diplomacy and external balancing—as lowering the near-term probability of a broader military clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$113,504結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent July 2026 maritime incidents at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, involving water cannons, vessel maneuvers, and a reported baton injury to a Philippine sailor, have sustained elevated friction without crossing into sustained naval or air combat. Bilateral protests occurred alongside ASEAN-hosted talks where ministers reported significant progress toward a South China Sea Code of Conduct, with hopes for conclusion by year-end. Philippine President Marcos signaled interest in resetting ties, while joint U.S.-Philippines-Japan maritime exercises underscored alliance deterrence. Traders appear to view these patterns—persistent coast guard harassment offset by active diplomacy and external balancing—as lowering the near-term probability of a broader military clash before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions