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Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

icon for Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

Fernando Dias da Costa 30.1%

Siga Batista 9.0%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 4.3%

Honório Augusto Lopes 3.5%

Polymarket

$327,777 交易量

Fernando Dias da Costa 30.1%

Siga Batista 9.0%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 4.3%

Honório Augusto Lopes 3.5%

Polymarket

$327,777 交易量

Fernando Dias da Costa

$54,942 交易量

16%

Siga Batista

$22,880 交易量

9%

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$88,668 交易量

4%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$18,309 交易量

3%

João de Deus Mendes

$16,793 交易量

3%

Baciro Djá

$14,412 交易量

3%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$19,172 交易量

3%

João Bernardo Vieira

$16,630 交易量

2%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$18,236 交易量

2%

Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$16,012 交易量

2%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$19,675 交易量

<1%

José Mário Vaz

$22,046 交易量

<1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Guinea-Bissau’s December 2026 presidential election occurs amid a fragile post-coup transition following the military’s November 2025 intervention that halted vote tabulation in the prior contest between Fernando Dias da Costa and incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló. Both sides had claimed victory before official results could be certified, after which the junta installed a transitional government under Horta Inta-A Na Man and scheduled new polls for December. The fragmented field reflects ongoing restrictions on major parties such as PAIGC, unresolved detentions of opposition figures, and the absence of consolidated polling data. Trader consensus remains dispersed because no candidate has secured broad alliances or clear momentum under the transitional charter, while ECOWAS and AU engagement continues to emphasize inclusive preparations ahead of the December vote.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
交易量
$327,777
結束日期
2025-11-23
市場開放時間
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Guinea-Bissau’s December 2026 presidential election occurs amid a fragile post-coup transition following the military’s November 2025 intervention that halted vote tabulation in the prior contest between Fernando Dias da Costa and incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló. Both sides had claimed victory before official results could be certified, after which the junta installed a transitional government under Horta Inta-A Na Man and scheduled new polls for December. The fragmented field reflects ongoing restrictions on major parties such as PAIGC, unresolved detentions of opposition figures, and the absence of consolidated polling data. Trader consensus remains dispersed because no candidate has secured broad alliances or clear momentum under the transitional charter, while ECOWAS and AU engagement continues to emphasize inclusive preparations ahead of the December vote.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
交易量
$327,777
結束日期
2025-11-23
市場開放時間
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Fernando Dias da Costa" at 16%, followed by "Siga Batista" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" has generated $327.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 6, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" is "Fernando Dias da Costa" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Siga Batista" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.