**Latest short-range forecasts for Chengdu on September 1, 2026, point to a daily maximum near 32–34°C under partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow.** WeatherBug’s 10-day outlook shows a high of 94°F (~34.4°C) with partial cloud cover and minimal precipitation, while several Chinese meteorological sources list 32–33°C maxima with clearing conditions. These values sit squarely within the market’s tightest clustering at 34°C (26.5%), 35°C (25.5%), and 36°C (18.5%). **Key scientific drivers include the strength and timing of daytime insolation under a weakening subtropical high, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise degree of cloud suppression.** Light winds limit advective cooling or warming, while the Sichuan Basin’s topography can enhance local heating through reduced ventilation. Small differences in afternoon cloud cover or the exact depth of the mixed layer can shift the peak by 1–2°C, explaining why probabilities remain closely split rather than concentrated on one outcome. Model consensus (GFS, ECMWF, CMA) shows limited spread but retains typical uncertainty in the final 1–2°C range due to microphysical and urban-heat-island effects. **With resolution only two days away, updates from official agencies will dominate sentiment as new model runs refine cloud timing and maximum temperature.** Historical early-September averages for Chengdu hover around 28–29°C, so the current warm signal reflects lingering late-summer conditions before the seasonal decline accelerates. Traders are effectively pricing the residual uncertainty in peak radiative heating and local thermodynamics rather than any large-scale shift in the synoptic pattern.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月1日成都最高溫度？
9月1日成都最高溫度？
35°C 35%
34°C 27%
36°C 19%
33°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C
5%
33°C
15%
34°C
27%
35°C
35%
36°C
19%
37°C
6%
38°C or higher
1%
35°C 35%
34°C 27%
36°C 19%
33°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
28°C or below
$110 交易量
<1%
29°C
$0 交易量
<1%
30°C
$0 交易量
4%
31°C
$10 交易量
2%
32°C
$20 交易量
5%
33°C
$0 交易量
15%
34°C
$9 交易量
27%
35°C
$13 交易量
35%
36°C
$103 交易量
19%
37°C
$105 交易量
6%
38°C or higher
$0 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest short-range forecasts for Chengdu on September 1, 2026, point to a daily maximum near 32–34°C under partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow.** WeatherBug’s 10-day outlook shows a high of 94°F (~34.4°C) with partial cloud cover and minimal precipitation, while several Chinese meteorological sources list 32–33°C maxima with clearing conditions. These values sit squarely within the market’s tightest clustering at 34°C (26.5%), 35°C (25.5%), and 36°C (18.5%).
**Key scientific drivers include the strength and timing of daytime insolation under a weakening subtropical high, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise degree of cloud suppression.** Light winds limit advective cooling or warming, while the Sichuan Basin’s topography can enhance local heating through reduced ventilation. Small differences in afternoon cloud cover or the exact depth of the mixed layer can shift the peak by 1–2°C, explaining why probabilities remain closely split rather than concentrated on one outcome. Model consensus (GFS, ECMWF, CMA) shows limited spread but retains typical uncertainty in the final 1–2°C range due to microphysical and urban-heat-island effects.
**With resolution only two days away, updates from official agencies will dominate sentiment as new model runs refine cloud timing and maximum temperature.** Historical early-September averages for Chengdu hover around 28–29°C, so the current warm signal reflects lingering late-summer conditions before the seasonal decline accelerates. Traders are effectively pricing the residual uncertainty in peak radiative heating and local thermodynamics rather than any large-scale shift in the synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$369結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest short-range forecasts for Chengdu on September 1, 2026, point to a daily maximum near 32–34°C under partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow.** WeatherBug’s 10-day outlook shows a high of 94°F (~34.4°C) with partial cloud cover and minimal precipitation, while several Chinese meteorological sources list 32–33°C maxima with clearing conditions. These values sit squarely within the market’s tightest clustering at 34°C (26.5%), 35°C (25.5%), and 36°C (18.5%).
**Key scientific drivers include the strength and timing of daytime insolation under a weakening subtropical high, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise degree of cloud suppression.** Light winds limit advective cooling or warming, while the Sichuan Basin’s topography can enhance local heating through reduced ventilation. Small differences in afternoon cloud cover or the exact depth of the mixed layer can shift the peak by 1–2°C, explaining why probabilities remain closely split rather than concentrated on one outcome. Model consensus (GFS, ECMWF, CMA) shows limited spread but retains typical uncertainty in the final 1–2°C range due to microphysical and urban-heat-island effects.
**With resolution only two days away, updates from official agencies will dominate sentiment as new model runs refine cloud timing and maximum temperature.** Historical early-September averages for Chengdu hover around 28–29°C, so the current warm signal reflects lingering late-summer conditions before the seasonal decline accelerates. Traders are effectively pricing the residual uncertainty in peak radiative heating and local thermodynamics rather than any large-scale shift in the synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$369結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ET**Latest short-range forecasts for Chengdu on September 1, 2026, point to a daily maximum near 32–34°C under partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow.** WeatherBug’s 10-day outlook shows a high of 94°F (~34.4°C) with partial cloud cover and minimal precipitation, while several Chinese meteorological sources list 32–33°C maxima with clearing conditions. These values sit squarely within the market’s tightest clustering at 34°C (26.5%), 35°C (25.5%), and 36°C (18.5%). **Key scientific drivers include the strength and timing of daytime insolation under a weakening subtropical high, boundary-layer mixing, and the precise degree of cloud suppression.** Light winds limit advective cooling or warming, while the Sichuan Basin’s topography can enhance local heating through reduced ventilation. Small differences in afternoon cloud cover or the exact depth of the mixed layer can shift the peak by 1–2°C, explaining why probabilities remain closely split rather than concentrated on one outcome. Model consensus (GFS, ECMWF, CMA) shows limited spread but retains typical uncertainty in the final 1–2°C range due to microphysical and urban-heat-island effects. **With resolution only two days away, updates from official agencies will dominate sentiment as new model runs refine cloud timing and maximum temperature.** Historical early-September averages for Chengdu hover around 28–29°C, so the current warm signal reflects lingering late-summer conditions before the seasonal decline accelerates. Traders are effectively pricing the residual uncertainty in peak radiative heating and local thermodynamics rather than any large-scale shift in the synoptic pattern.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions