Recent forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and WeatherBug point to a peak of 33–34°C in Chengdu on August 30, driven by partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and reduced moisture following showers on the 29th. In the humid Sichuan basin, even modest cloud cover and dew points near 18–20°C can suppress maximum temperatures by limiting solar heating, while clearing skies could allow brief spikes toward 35°C. Model runs show close agreement on these thresholds, with minimal precipitation expected, keeping the market-implied odds centered on 34–35°C outcomes amid typical late-August variability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月30日成都最高溫度?
35°C 33%
34°C 27%
36°C 14%
33°C 13%
$19,231 交易量
$19,231 交易量
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
3%
32°C
7%
33°C
13%
34°C
27%
35°C
33%
36°C
14%
37°C
4%
38°C or higher
1%
35°C 33%
34°C 27%
36°C 14%
33°C 13%
$19,231 交易量
$19,231 交易量
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
3%
32°C
7%
33°C
13%
34°C
27%
35°C
33%
36°C
14%
37°C
4%
38°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and WeatherBug point to a peak of 33–34°C in Chengdu on August 30, driven by partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and reduced moisture following showers on the 29th. In the humid Sichuan basin, even modest cloud cover and dew points near 18–20°C can suppress maximum temperatures by limiting solar heating, while clearing skies could allow brief spikes toward 35°C. Model runs show close agreement on these thresholds, with minimal precipitation expected, keeping the market-implied odds centered on 34–35°C outcomes amid typical late-August variability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions