Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and AEMET point to a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, supporting maximum temperatures of 33–34°C in Madrid on August 4 under mostly sunny conditions with light winds. This aligns with climatological August averages near 32–33°C and explains the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes at combined 82% implied probability. Model consensus shows limited potential for stronger Saharan advection or cloud cover that could push readings to 35°C or above, while cooler scenarios remain unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated short-range guidance and any AEMET briefing in the next 24–48 hours represent the key variables that could shift trader positioning before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月4日馬德裏氣溫最高？
8月4日馬德裏氣溫最高？
34°C 54%
33°C 28%
35°C 10%
32°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
29°C或以下
<1%
30°C
2%
31°C
2%
32°C
8%
33°C
28%
34°C
54%
35°C
10%
36°C
8%
37°C
2%
38°C
2%
39°C或以上
<1%
34°C 54%
33°C 28%
35°C 10%
32°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
29°C或以下
$0 交易量
<1%
30°C
$10 交易量
2%
31°C
$1 交易量
2%
32°C
$0 交易量
8%
33°C
$131 交易量
28%
34°C
$35 交易量
54%
35°C
$0 交易量
10%
36°C
$0 交易量
8%
37°C
$9 交易量
2%
38°C
$15 交易量
2%
39°C或以上
$5 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and AEMET point to a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, supporting maximum temperatures of 33–34°C in Madrid on August 4 under mostly sunny conditions with light winds. This aligns with climatological August averages near 32–33°C and explains the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes at combined 82% implied probability. Model consensus shows limited potential for stronger Saharan advection or cloud cover that could push readings to 35°C or above, while cooler scenarios remain unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated short-range guidance and any AEMET briefing in the next 24–48 hours represent the key variables that could shift trader positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$206結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and AEMET point to a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, supporting maximum temperatures of 33–34°C in Madrid on August 4 under mostly sunny conditions with light winds. This aligns with climatological August averages near 32–33°C and explains the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes at combined 82% implied probability. Model consensus shows limited potential for stronger Saharan advection or cloud cover that could push readings to 35°C or above, while cooler scenarios remain unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated short-range guidance and any AEMET briefing in the next 24–48 hours represent the key variables that could shift trader positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$206結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and AEMET point to a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, supporting maximum temperatures of 33–34°C in Madrid on August 4 under mostly sunny conditions with light winds. This aligns with climatological August averages near 32–33°C and explains the market’s heavy weighting toward those two outcomes at combined 82% implied probability. Model consensus shows limited potential for stronger Saharan advection or cloud cover that could push readings to 35°C or above, while cooler scenarios remain unlikely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated short-range guidance and any AEMET briefing in the next 24–48 hours represent the key variables that could shift trader positioning before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions