Current numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate Madrid will experience typical early-August high-pressure conditions on August 3, favoring afternoon maxima near 33°C with mostly clear skies and light winds. This aligns closely with long-term climatology showing average August highs of 31–33°C in the region, while recent July observations of 35–37°C peaks have not extended into persistent heatwave patterns. Traders have weighted 33°C highest (47.5% implied probability) due to ensemble consensus around this range, with limited upside risk from model spread or anomalous advection. Updated short-range guidance and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月3日馬德裏氣溫最高？
8月3日馬德裏氣溫最高？
33°C 46%
34°C 25%
32°C 18%
35°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-03
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
2%
31°C
3%
32°C
18%
33°C
46%
34°C
25%
35°C
7%
36°C
3%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
33°C 46%
34°C 25%
32°C 18%
35°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-03
29°C or below
$88 交易量
<1%
30°C
$25 交易量
2%
31°C
$569 交易量
3%
32°C
$881 交易量
18%
33°C
$477 交易量
46%
34°C
$437 交易量
25%
35°C
$317 交易量
7%
36°C
$216 交易量
3%
37°C
$40 交易量
1%
38°C
$137 交易量
<1%
39°C or higher
$151 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate Madrid will experience typical early-August high-pressure conditions on August 3, favoring afternoon maxima near 33°C with mostly clear skies and light winds. This aligns closely with long-term climatology showing average August highs of 31–33°C in the region, while recent July observations of 35–37°C peaks have not extended into persistent heatwave patterns. Traders have weighted 33°C highest (47.5% implied probability) due to ensemble consensus around this range, with limited upside risk from model spread or anomalous advection. Updated short-range guidance and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$3,337結束日期
2026-08-03市場開放時間
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate Madrid will experience typical early-August high-pressure conditions on August 3, favoring afternoon maxima near 33°C with mostly clear skies and light winds. This aligns closely with long-term climatology showing average August highs of 31–33°C in the region, while recent July observations of 35–37°C peaks have not extended into persistent heatwave patterns. Traders have weighted 33°C highest (47.5% implied probability) due to ensemble consensus around this range, with limited upside risk from model spread or anomalous advection. Updated short-range guidance and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,337結束日期
2026-08-03市場開放時間
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETCurrent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate Madrid will experience typical early-August high-pressure conditions on August 3, favoring afternoon maxima near 33°C with mostly clear skies and light winds. This aligns closely with long-term climatology showing average August highs of 31–33°C in the region, while recent July observations of 35–37°C peaks have not extended into persistent heatwave patterns. Traders have weighted 33°C highest (47.5% implied probability) due to ensemble consensus around this range, with limited upside risk from model spread or anomalous advection. Updated short-range guidance and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions