The ongoing military engagement with Iran has emerged as the dominant factor weighing on President Trump's job approval, with recent polling showing public disapproval of the conflict reaching levels comparable to past unpopular wars and contributing to record-low net ratings near -20 for his second term. This has coincided with sharp increases in gas prices and broader cost-of-living pressures that have eroded support even among some Republican voters, pushing overall approval figures to the low-to-mid 30s in multiple May 2026 surveys. Six months ahead of the November midterm elections, these dynamics have heightened Democratic turnout advantages and raised questions about congressional control, while potential de-escalation efforts, energy policy adjustments, or economic stabilization measures could limit further erosion. Persistent inflation or escalation signals remain key variables that traders monitor for shifts in sentiment.