Internal power struggles in Iran following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in February 2026 have fueled trader focus on coup-related outcomes. Hardline factions, including Paydari Front lawmakers, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, limiting parliament's role, and advancing a US truce while Mojtaba Khamenei remains absent from public view. Recent military leadership reshuffles appointed IRGC-aligned figures to top posts, coinciding with billboards highlighting a military-led group and analyses noting junta-like consolidation. The judiciary chief warned in mid-August of risks including coups and infiltration. These factional tensions and institutional shifts shape assessments of regime stability and potential leadership changes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$2,122,697 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
9%
$2,122,697 交易量
12月31日
$81,471 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles in Iran following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in February 2026 have fueled trader focus on coup-related outcomes. Hardline factions, including Paydari Front lawmakers, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, limiting parliament's role, and advancing a US truce while Mojtaba Khamenei remains absent from public view. Recent military leadership reshuffles appointed IRGC-aligned figures to top posts, coinciding with billboards highlighting a military-led group and analyses noting junta-like consolidation. The judiciary chief warned in mid-August of risks including coups and infiltration. These factional tensions and institutional shifts shape assessments of regime stability and potential leadership changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
交易量
$2,122,697結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles in Iran following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in February 2026 have fueled trader focus on coup-related outcomes. Hardline factions, including Paydari Front lawmakers, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, limiting parliament's role, and advancing a US truce while Mojtaba Khamenei remains absent from public view. Recent military leadership reshuffles appointed IRGC-aligned figures to top posts, coinciding with billboards highlighting a military-led group and analyses noting junta-like consolidation. The judiciary chief warned in mid-August of risks including coups and infiltration. These factional tensions and institutional shifts shape assessments of regime stability and potential leadership changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,122,697結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Internal power struggles in Iran following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in February 2026 have fueled trader focus on coup-related outcomes. Hardline factions, including Paydari Front lawmakers, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "political coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, limiting parliament's role, and advancing a US truce while Mojtaba Khamenei remains absent from public view. Recent military leadership reshuffles appointed IRGC-aligned figures to top posts, coinciding with billboards highlighting a military-led group and analyses noting junta-like consolidation. The judiciary chief warned in mid-August of risks including coups and infiltration. These factional tensions and institutional shifts shape assessments of regime stability and potential leadership changes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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