Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership have intensified amid the ongoing 2026 conflict with the US and Israel, following the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the limited public role of his successor, Mojtaba Khamenei. Hardline factions have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associated officials of a "soft coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, pursuing negotiations, and sidelining revolutionary institutions and parliament—a narrative prominent in July statements from Paydari Front figures. More recently, exiled opposition leader Reza Pahlavi cited growing quiet defections by regime military and civilian officials as evidence of internal erosion. Escalating military tensions, including Iranian claims of downing US drones and disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, alongside mediation efforts through Qatar, continue to highlight factional divisions that could influence any formal challenge to authority.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$2,135,704 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
8%
$2,135,704 交易量
12月31日
$94,478 交易量
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership have intensified amid the ongoing 2026 conflict with the US and Israel, following the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the limited public role of his successor, Mojtaba Khamenei. Hardline factions have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associated officials of a "soft coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, pursuing negotiations, and sidelining revolutionary institutions and parliament—a narrative prominent in July statements from Paydari Front figures. More recently, exiled opposition leader Reza Pahlavi cited growing quiet defections by regime military and civilian officials as evidence of internal erosion. Escalating military tensions, including Iranian claims of downing US drones and disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, alongside mediation efforts through Qatar, continue to highlight factional divisions that could influence any formal challenge to authority.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
交易量
$2,135,704結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership have intensified amid the ongoing 2026 conflict with the US and Israel, following the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the limited public role of his successor, Mojtaba Khamenei. Hardline factions have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associated officials of a "soft coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, pursuing negotiations, and sidelining revolutionary institutions and parliament—a narrative prominent in July statements from Paydari Front figures. More recently, exiled opposition leader Reza Pahlavi cited growing quiet defections by regime military and civilian officials as evidence of internal erosion. Escalating military tensions, including Iranian claims of downing US drones and disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, alongside mediation efforts through Qatar, continue to highlight factional divisions that could influence any formal challenge to authority.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,135,704結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETInternal power struggles within Iran's leadership have intensified amid the ongoing 2026 conflict with the US and Israel, following the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the limited public role of his successor, Mojtaba Khamenei. Hardline factions have repeatedly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associated officials of a "soft coup" by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, pursuing negotiations, and sidelining revolutionary institutions and parliament—a narrative prominent in July statements from Paydari Front figures. More recently, exiled opposition leader Reza Pahlavi cited growing quiet defections by regime military and civilian officials as evidence of internal erosion. Escalating military tensions, including Iranian claims of downing US drones and disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, alongside mediation efforts through Qatar, continue to highlight factional divisions that could influence any formal challenge to authority.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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