The Iranian regime has shown no verifiable signs of organized military dissent or coup planning in recent weeks, with power consolidating among IRGC commanders and security elites following the February 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel. Internal factional tensions between hardliners and pragmatists have surfaced in public statements and negotiations, yet these have not translated into challenges against Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei or the broader clerical-military structure. Economic pressures and border security incidents continue, but officials have emphasized national unity and deployed Basij forces to manage potential unrest, while a ceasefire extension maintains focus on external diplomacy rather than domestic upheaval. Traders price the low odds of a coup attempt by June 30 as reflecting the regime's demonstrated capacity to suppress opposition and retain control over key institutions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$1,128,597 交易量
$1,128,597 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$1,128,597 交易量
$1,128,597 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime has shown no verifiable signs of organized military dissent or coup planning in recent weeks, with power consolidating among IRGC commanders and security elites following the February 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel. Internal factional tensions between hardliners and pragmatists have surfaced in public statements and negotiations, yet these have not translated into challenges against Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei or the broader clerical-military structure. Economic pressures and border security incidents continue, but officials have emphasized national unity and deployed Basij forces to manage potential unrest, while a ceasefire extension maintains focus on external diplomacy rather than domestic upheaval. Traders price the low odds of a coup attempt by June 30 as reflecting the regime's demonstrated capacity to suppress opposition and retain control over key institutions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
交易量
$1,128,597結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime has shown no verifiable signs of organized military dissent or coup planning in recent weeks, with power consolidating among IRGC commanders and security elites following the February 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel. Internal factional tensions between hardliners and pragmatists have surfaced in public statements and negotiations, yet these have not translated into challenges against Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei or the broader clerical-military structure. Economic pressures and border security incidents continue, but officials have emphasized national unity and deployed Basij forces to manage potential unrest, while a ceasefire extension maintains focus on external diplomacy rather than domestic upheaval. Traders price the low odds of a coup attempt by June 30 as reflecting the regime's demonstrated capacity to suppress opposition and retain control over key institutions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,128,597結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime has shown no verifiable signs of organized military dissent or coup planning in recent weeks, with power consolidating among IRGC commanders and security elites following the February 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel. Internal factional tensions between hardliners and pragmatists have surfaced in public statements and negotiations, yet these have not translated into challenges against Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei or the broader clerical-military structure. Economic pressures and border security incidents continue, but officials have emphasized national unity and deployed Basij forces to manage potential unrest, while a ceasefire extension maintains focus on external diplomacy rather than domestic upheaval. Traders price the low odds of a coup attempt by June 30 as reflecting the regime's demonstrated capacity to suppress opposition and retain control over key institutions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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