The recent April 28 federal indictment of former FBI Director James Comey in the Eastern District of North Carolina on charges of threatening the president and transmitting threats via interstate commerce, based on a 2025 social media post, anchors the 98.7% trader consensus that charges will not be dropped by May 31. Court records show an initial appearance completed, a July 15 trial date set, and pretrial motions due June 5, placing any substantive rulings well after the market deadline. This timeline aligns with standard federal procedure following a fresh grand jury action, distinct from the prior dismissed case over prosecutor appointment. While motions challenging the charges on First Amendment grounds or other grounds remain possible, historical patterns in similar early-stage cases indicate dismissals rarely occur within weeks of indictment. Late-breaking developments such as a surprise judicial ruling or DOJ withdrawal could still shift the outcome before month-end.