Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's official X account maintains infrequent posting patterns, typically releasing statements every few days on religious observances, diplomatic positions, or core policy themes rather than daily updates. With no major summits, escalations, or deadlines scheduled for the May 15-22 window, traders view this baseline activity as favoring the sub-five outcome at 49 percent implied probability. Historical records show similar quiet stretches outside periods of heightened regional tension, and current diplomatic breathing room reinforces expectations of limited volume. The 26 percent chance for five to nine posts reflects the possibility of routine commentary, while lower probabilities for higher buckets align with the Supreme Leader's established restraint on the platform.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Khamenei # posts 2026年5月15日至5月22日？
Khamenei # posts 2026年5月15日至5月22日？
＜5 49%
55-59 11.8%
5-9 8%
10-14 1.1%
最新
最新
2026-05-22
＜5
49%
5-9
26%
10-14
22%
15-19
24%
20-24
19%
25-29
22%
30-34
15%
35-39
1%
40-44
1%
45-49
1%
50-54
32%
55-59
12%
60+
1%
＜5 49%
55-59 11.8%
5-9 8%
10-14 1.1%
最新
最新
2026-05-22
＜5
$297 交易量
49%
5-9
$81 交易量
26%
10-14
$90 交易量
22%
15-19
$63 交易量
24%
20-24
$59 交易量
19%
25-29
$59 交易量
22%
30-34
$120 交易量
15%
35-39
$88 交易量
1%
40-44
$190 交易量
1%
45-49
$120 交易量
1%
50-54
$197 交易量
32%
55-59
$179 交易量
12%
60+
$338 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 15, 12:00 PM ET and May 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's official X account maintains infrequent posting patterns, typically releasing statements every few days on religious observances, diplomatic positions, or core policy themes rather than daily updates. With no major summits, escalations, or deadlines scheduled for the May 15-22 window, traders view this baseline activity as favoring the sub-five outcome at 49 percent implied probability. Historical records show similar quiet stretches outside periods of heightened regional tension, and current diplomatic breathing room reinforces expectations of limited volume. The 26 percent chance for five to nine posts reflects the possibility of routine commentary, while lower probabilities for higher buckets align with the Supreme Leader's established restraint on the platform.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 15, 12:00 PM ET and May 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間： May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
交易量
$1,879結束日期
2026-05-22市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 15, 12:00 PM ET and May 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's official X account maintains infrequent posting patterns, typically releasing statements every few days on religious observances, diplomatic positions, or core policy themes rather than daily updates. With no major summits, escalations, or deadlines scheduled for the May 15-22 window, traders view this baseline activity as favoring the sub-five outcome at 49 percent implied probability. Historical records show similar quiet stretches outside periods of heightened regional tension, and current diplomatic breathing room reinforces expectations of limited volume. The 26 percent chance for five to nine posts reflects the possibility of routine commentary, while lower probabilities for higher buckets align with the Supreme Leader's established restraint on the platform.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 15, 12:00 PM ET and May 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$1,879結束日期
2026-05-22市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's official X account maintains infrequent posting patterns, typically releasing statements every few days on religious observances, diplomatic positions, or core policy themes rather than daily updates. With no major summits, escalations, or deadlines scheduled for the May 15-22 window, traders view this baseline activity as favoring the sub-five outcome at 49 percent implied probability. Historical records show similar quiet stretches outside periods of heightened regional tension, and current diplomatic breathing room reinforces expectations of limited volume. The 26 percent chance for five to nine posts reflects the possibility of routine commentary, while lower probabilities for higher buckets align with the Supreme Leader's established restraint on the platform.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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