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icon for 金正恩在2026年12月31日前出任朝鮮最高領導人?

金正恩在2026年12月31日前出任朝鮮最高領導人?

icon for 金正恩在2026年12月31日前出任朝鮮最高領導人?

金正恩在2026年12月31日前出任朝鮮最高領導人?

12月 31

12月 31

6% 機率
Polymarket

$75,600 交易量

6% 機率
Polymarket

$75,600 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kim Jong Un has reinforced his authority through active public leadership and institutional consolidation, including his re-election as State Affairs Commission chairman during the March 2026 Supreme People’s Assembly session and his prominent role at the February 2026 Ninth Party Congress. Recent state media reports highlight his focus on nuclear deterrence as irreversible, youth mobilization as a regime pillar, and diplomatic realignments with Russia and China to bolster stability. South Korean intelligence assessments indicate early succession positioning for his daughter, Kim Ju Ae, rather than any leadership vacuum. These developments sustain trader consensus around the low probability of his removal by late 2026, reflecting the regime’s emphasis on dynastic continuity and elite control amid ongoing policy priorities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$75,600
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 1:38 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kim Jong Un has reinforced his authority through active public leadership and institutional consolidation, including his re-election as State Affairs Commission chairman during the March 2026 Supreme People’s Assembly session and his prominent role at the February 2026 Ninth Party Congress. Recent state media reports highlight his focus on nuclear deterrence as irreversible, youth mobilization as a regime pillar, and diplomatic realignments with Russia and China to bolster stability. South Korean intelligence assessments indicate early succession positioning for his daughter, Kim Ju Ae, rather than any leadership vacuum. These developments sustain trader consensus around the low probability of his removal by late 2026, reflecting the regime’s emphasis on dynastic continuity and elite control amid ongoing policy priorities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$75,600
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 1:38 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"金正恩在2026年12月31日前出任朝鮮最高領導人?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "金正恩在2026年12月31日前不再擔任北韓最高領導人?" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 6¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 6% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "金正恩在2026年12月31日前出任朝鮮最高領導人?" has generated $75.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "金正恩在2026年12月31日前出任朝鮮最高領導人?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "金正恩在2026年12月31日前出任朝鮮最高領導人?" is "金正恩在2026年12月31日前不再擔任北韓最高領導人?" at just 6%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "金正恩在2026年12月31日前出任朝鮮最高領導人?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.