Recent observational data and forecast models from sources tracking Mexico City conditions point to a minimum temperature of 13–14°C on September 3 as the dominant driver of trader sentiment, reflected in the leading implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. At the city's high elevation near 2,240 meters, nocturnal radiative cooling is moderated by persistent cloud cover and light showers typical of early September, which limit temperature drops below seasonal norms of around 10°C. Multiple model runs showed consistent overnight lows in the 12–14°C range with minimal model spread, reducing uncertainty and concentrating bets near the observed values while assigning lower odds to colder thresholds like 9°C or below.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月3日墨西哥城的最低溫度？
9月3日墨西哥城的最低溫度？
14°C 99%
9°C 20%
13°C 20%
8°C或以下 14%
$1,212 交易量
$1,212 交易量
2026-09-03
8°C或以下
否
9°C
否
10°C
否
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
是
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C或以上
否
14°C 99%
9°C 20%
13°C 20%
8°C或以下 14%
$1,212 交易量
$1,212 交易量
2026-09-03
8°C或以下
$62 交易量
否
9°C
$12 交易量
否
10°C
$59 交易量
否
11°C
$89 交易量
否
12°C
$92 交易量
否
13°C
$120 交易量
否
14°C
$331 交易量
是
15°C
$186 交易量
否
16°C
$112 交易量
否
17°C
$62 交易量
否
18°C或以上
$87 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observational data and forecast models from sources tracking Mexico City conditions point to a minimum temperature of 13–14°C on September 3 as the dominant driver of trader sentiment, reflected in the leading implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. At the city's high elevation near 2,240 meters, nocturnal radiative cooling is moderated by persistent cloud cover and light showers typical of early September, which limit temperature drops below seasonal norms of around 10°C. Multiple model runs showed consistent overnight lows in the 12–14°C range with minimal model spread, reducing uncertainty and concentrating bets near the observed values while assigning lower odds to colder thresholds like 9°C or below.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
交易量
$1,212結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observational data and forecast models from sources tracking Mexico City conditions point to a minimum temperature of 13–14°C on September 3 as the dominant driver of trader sentiment, reflected in the leading implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. At the city's high elevation near 2,240 meters, nocturnal radiative cooling is moderated by persistent cloud cover and light showers typical of early September, which limit temperature drops below seasonal norms of around 10°C. Multiple model runs showed consistent overnight lows in the 12–14°C range with minimal model spread, reducing uncertainty and concentrating bets near the observed values while assigning lower odds to colder thresholds like 9°C or below.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,212結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Recent observational data and forecast models from sources tracking Mexico City conditions point to a minimum temperature of 13–14°C on September 3 as the dominant driver of trader sentiment, reflected in the leading implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. At the city's high elevation near 2,240 meters, nocturnal radiative cooling is moderated by persistent cloud cover and light showers typical of early September, which limit temperature drops below seasonal norms of around 10°C. Multiple model runs showed consistent overnight lows in the 12–14°C range with minimal model spread, reducing uncertainty and concentrating bets near the observed values while assigning lower odds to colder thresholds like 9°C or below.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions