Recent forecasts from global and regional models, aligned with ongoing observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency, show Tokyo's overnight minimum temperature stabilizing near 23°C amid persistent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This outcome aligns with mid-September climatological baselines for the region, where typical lows range 22–24°C under similar humid, overcast conditions. The near-certain market-implied probability for exactly 23°C reflects aggregated trader assessment of real-time data convergence, with resolution hinging on the official daily minimum recorded at the Tokyo station. Minor deviations could arise only from late-night measurement adjustments or localized microclimate effects not captured in broader models.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月15日東京的最低溫度？
9月15日東京的最低溫度？
23°C 100.0%
19°C或以下 <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$4,996 交易量
$4,996 交易量
2026-09-15
19°C或以下
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
是
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C或以上
否
23°C 100.0%
19°C或以下 <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$4,996 交易量
$4,996 交易量
2026-09-15
19°C或以下
$76 交易量
否
20°C
$116 交易量
否
21°C
$381 交易量
否
22°C
$918 交易量
否
23°C
$875 交易量
是
24°C
$1,364 交易量
否
25°C
$825 交易量
否
26°C
$26 交易量
否
27°C
$106 交易量
否
28°C
$172 交易量
否
29°C或以上
$138 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global and regional models, aligned with ongoing observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency, show Tokyo's overnight minimum temperature stabilizing near 23°C amid persistent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This outcome aligns with mid-September climatological baselines for the region, where typical lows range 22–24°C under similar humid, overcast conditions. The near-certain market-implied probability for exactly 23°C reflects aggregated trader assessment of real-time data convergence, with resolution hinging on the official daily minimum recorded at the Tokyo station. Minor deviations could arise only from late-night measurement adjustments or localized microclimate effects not captured in broader models.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
交易量
$4,996結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global and regional models, aligned with ongoing observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency, show Tokyo's overnight minimum temperature stabilizing near 23°C amid persistent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This outcome aligns with mid-September climatological baselines for the region, where typical lows range 22–24°C under similar humid, overcast conditions. The near-certain market-implied probability for exactly 23°C reflects aggregated trader assessment of real-time data convergence, with resolution hinging on the official daily minimum recorded at the Tokyo station. Minor deviations could arise only from late-night measurement adjustments or localized microclimate effects not captured in broader models.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$4,996結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Recent forecasts from global and regional models, aligned with ongoing observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency, show Tokyo's overnight minimum temperature stabilizing near 23°C amid persistent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This outcome aligns with mid-September climatological baselines for the region, where typical lows range 22–24°C under similar humid, overcast conditions. The near-certain market-implied probability for exactly 23°C reflects aggregated trader assessment of real-time data convergence, with resolution hinging on the official daily minimum recorded at the Tokyo station. Minor deviations could arise only from late-night measurement adjustments or localized microclimate effects not captured in broader models.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions