Strong model consensus from agencies including MetService and international forecasts supports the market-implied 99.5% odds on a 13°C low for Wellington on September 3, driven by mild spring conditions with southerly to northwesterly winds and cloud cover limiting overnight radiative cooling. Current observations near 12–13°C overnight align with ensemble guidance showing no significant cold advection or clear-sky radiative drop. Historical September averages near 9–10°C provide context, yet the present synoptic pattern favors the higher threshold. Minor revisions remain possible if final station readings or localized effects differ, though multiple runs indicate low likelihood of deviation below 12°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月3日惠靈頓的最低溫度？
9月3日惠靈頓的最低溫度？
13°C 100.0%
8°C或以下 <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$1,621 交易量
$1,621 交易量
2026-09-03
8°C或以下
否
9°C
否
10°C
否
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
是
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C或以上
否
13°C 100.0%
8°C或以下 <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$1,621 交易量
$1,621 交易量
2026-09-03
8°C或以下
$112 交易量
否
9°C
$147 交易量
否
10°C
$115 交易量
否
11°C
$231 交易量
否
12°C
$163 交易量
否
13°C
$162 交易量
是
14°C
$251 交易量
否
15°C
$25 交易量
否
16°C
$135 交易量
否
17°C
$140 交易量
否
18°C或以上
$140 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus from agencies including MetService and international forecasts supports the market-implied 99.5% odds on a 13°C low for Wellington on September 3, driven by mild spring conditions with southerly to northwesterly winds and cloud cover limiting overnight radiative cooling. Current observations near 12–13°C overnight align with ensemble guidance showing no significant cold advection or clear-sky radiative drop. Historical September averages near 9–10°C provide context, yet the present synoptic pattern favors the higher threshold. Minor revisions remain possible if final station readings or localized effects differ, though multiple runs indicate low likelihood of deviation below 12°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$1,621結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus from agencies including MetService and international forecasts supports the market-implied 99.5% odds on a 13°C low for Wellington on September 3, driven by mild spring conditions with southerly to northwesterly winds and cloud cover limiting overnight radiative cooling. Current observations near 12–13°C overnight align with ensemble guidance showing no significant cold advection or clear-sky radiative drop. Historical September averages near 9–10°C provide context, yet the present synoptic pattern favors the higher threshold. Minor revisions remain possible if final station readings or localized effects differ, though multiple runs indicate low likelihood of deviation below 12°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,621結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Strong model consensus from agencies including MetService and international forecasts supports the market-implied 99.5% odds on a 13°C low for Wellington on September 3, driven by mild spring conditions with southerly to northwesterly winds and cloud cover limiting overnight radiative cooling. Current observations near 12–13°C overnight align with ensemble guidance showing no significant cold advection or clear-sky radiative drop. Historical September averages near 9–10°C provide context, yet the present synoptic pattern favors the higher threshold. Minor revisions remain possible if final station readings or localized effects differ, though multiple runs indicate low likelihood of deviation below 12°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions