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icon for Luigi Mangione在2027年之前離開監禁？
政治·Luigi Mangione

Luigi Mangione在2027年之前離開監禁？

icon for Luigi Mangione在2027年之前離開監禁？
政治·Luigi Mangione

Luigi Mangione在2027年之前離開監禁？

是

2% 機率
Polymarket

$20,012 交易量

是

2% 機率
Polymarket

$20,012 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mangione’s August 2026 federal guilty plea to two stalking charges, where he admitted fatally shooting UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, anchors the near-certain “No” consensus at 98.4%. With sentencing scheduled for December 18, 2026, and prosecutors seeking decades behind bars up to life, traders see little realistic path to release before 2027. He has remained in federal custody since his December 2024 arrest, and the pending New York state murder trial—delayed into December on double-jeopardy grounds—adds another layer of proceedings unlikely to resolve in his favor quickly. While appeals or an unexpectedly lenient sentence could theoretically shift the timeline, the combination of the plea, strong evidence, and maximum penalties makes early freedom highly improbable.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$20,012
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mangione’s August 2026 federal guilty plea to two stalking charges, where he admitted fatally shooting UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, anchors the near-certain “No” consensus at 98.4%. With sentencing scheduled for December 18, 2026, and prosecutors seeking decades behind bars up to life, traders see little realistic path to release before 2027. He has remained in federal custody since his December 2024 arrest, and the pending New York state murder trial—delayed into December on double-jeopardy grounds—adds another layer of proceedings unlikely to resolve in his favor quickly. While appeals or an unexpectedly lenient sentence could theoretically shift the timeline, the combination of the plea, strong evidence, and maximum penalties makes early freedom highly improbable.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$20,012
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Luigi Mangione在2027年之前離開監禁？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Luigi Mangione會在2027年前被釋放嗎？" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 2¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 2% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Luigi Mangione在2027年之前離開監禁？" has generated $20K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Luigi Mangione在2027年之前離開監禁？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Luigi Mangione在2027年之前離開監禁？" is "Luigi Mangione會在2027年前被釋放嗎？" at just 2%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Luigi Mangione在2027年之前離開監禁？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.