Incumbent Democrat Richard Neal's long tenure representing western Massachusetts since 1988, combined with the district's consistent Democratic performance in presidential and congressional voting, underpins trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee at 95% for the November 2026 general election. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the September 1 primary, where Neal holds a commanding lead over challenger Jeromie Whalen. Limited Republican recruitment and fundraising further reinforce the positioning. A primary upset producing a significantly weaker Democratic nominee or an unforeseen late scandal could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such shifts improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$51,904 交易量
$51,904 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
95%
共和黨
5%
$51,904 交易量
$51,904 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$8,594 交易量
95%
共和黨
$43,310 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Richard Neal's long tenure representing western Massachusetts since 1988, combined with the district's consistent Democratic performance in presidential and congressional voting, underpins trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee at 95% for the November 2026 general election. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the September 1 primary, where Neal holds a commanding lead over challenger Jeromie Whalen. Limited Republican recruitment and fundraising further reinforce the positioning. A primary upset producing a significantly weaker Democratic nominee or an unforeseen late scandal could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$51,904結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Richard Neal's long tenure representing western Massachusetts since 1988, combined with the district's consistent Democratic performance in presidential and congressional voting, underpins trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee at 95% for the November 2026 general election. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the September 1 primary, where Neal holds a commanding lead over challenger Jeromie Whalen. Limited Republican recruitment and fundraising further reinforce the positioning. A primary upset producing a significantly weaker Democratic nominee or an unforeseen late scandal could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$51,904結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Richard Neal's long tenure representing western Massachusetts since 1988, combined with the district's consistent Democratic performance in presidential and congressional voting, underpins trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee at 95% for the November 2026 general election. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the September 1 primary, where Neal holds a commanding lead over challenger Jeromie Whalen. Limited Republican recruitment and fundraising further reinforce the positioning. A primary upset producing a significantly weaker Democratic nominee or an unforeseen late scandal could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such shifts improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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