Recent public statements by Miguel Díaz-Canel have reinforced trader expectations that he will remain Cuba’s president through June 30. In April interviews with U.S. outlets, he explicitly rejected any notion of stepping down, describing it as outside the vocabulary of Cuban leadership and emphasizing national sovereignty amid external pressure. No internal announcements, National Assembly actions, or health-related developments have signaled an imminent transition. Speculation about potential successors remains limited to longer-term analysis without concrete timelines or endorsements that could shift near-term probabilities. These factors align with the current 79 percent implied probability on the “No” outcome, reflecting the absence of verifiable catalysts for removal in the brief window before the market’s resolution date.