Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured the party nomination in the August 2026 primary with over 77% of the vote in Missouri’s 4th congressional district, facing Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November general election. The district’s R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Republican performance, including 71% support for the party’s presidential nominee in 2024, underpin trader pricing that heavily favors the Republican outcome. Recent redistricting upheld by the state supreme court preserved the seat’s conservative character across rural counties and suburban areas south of Kansas City. With all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Republican, the implied probability reflects the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter composition rather than any single recent event. Late developments such as a major scandal or unusually high Democratic turnout could still alter the result before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$50,168 交易量
$50,168 交易量
2026-11-02
馬克·艾爾福德（共和黨）
93%
喬丹·埃雷拉（民主黨）
8%
$50,168 交易量
$50,168 交易量
2026-11-02
馬克·艾爾福德（共和黨）
$32,792 交易量
93%
喬丹·埃雷拉（民主黨）
$17,376 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured the party nomination in the August 2026 primary with over 77% of the vote in Missouri’s 4th congressional district, facing Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November general election. The district’s R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Republican performance, including 71% support for the party’s presidential nominee in 2024, underpin trader pricing that heavily favors the Republican outcome. Recent redistricting upheld by the state supreme court preserved the seat’s conservative character across rural counties and suburban areas south of Kansas City. With all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Republican, the implied probability reflects the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter composition rather than any single recent event. Late developments such as a major scandal or unusually high Democratic turnout could still alter the result before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$50,168結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured the party nomination in the August 2026 primary with over 77% of the vote in Missouri’s 4th congressional district, facing Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November general election. The district’s R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Republican performance, including 71% support for the party’s presidential nominee in 2024, underpin trader pricing that heavily favors the Republican outcome. Recent redistricting upheld by the state supreme court preserved the seat’s conservative character across rural counties and suburban areas south of Kansas City. With all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Republican, the implied probability reflects the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter composition rather than any single recent event. Late developments such as a major scandal or unusually high Democratic turnout could still alter the result before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$50,168結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETIncumbent Republican Mark Alford secured the party nomination in the August 2026 primary with over 77% of the vote in Missouri’s 4th congressional district, facing Democrat Jordan Herrera in the November general election. The district’s R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Republican performance, including 71% support for the party’s presidential nominee in 2024, underpin trader pricing that heavily favors the Republican outcome. Recent redistricting upheld by the state supreme court preserved the seat’s conservative character across rural counties and suburban areas south of Kansas City. With all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Republican, the implied probability reflects the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter composition rather than any single recent event. Late developments such as a major scandal or unusually high Democratic turnout could still alter the result before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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