Missouri's 4th congressional district remains structurally Republican, anchored by an R+21 partisan voting index and the incumbent Mark Alford's 71 percent victory in 2024. Alford faces two primary challengers on August 4, while Democrats field a scattered group with no prominent frontrunner. Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, and trader pricing at 93.5 percent for a Republican win aligns with this baseline and the absence of recent polling shifts or notable endorsements favoring Democrats. Late developments such as an incumbent scandal, an unusually strong Democratic primary winner, or broader national economic shocks could narrow the margin, though the district's electoral math makes such reversals improbable before November 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$30,403 交易量
$30,403 交易量
2026-11-03
共和黨
94%
民主黨
7%
$30,403 交易量
$30,403 交易量
2026-11-03
共和黨
$16,483 交易量
94%
民主黨
$13,920 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district remains structurally Republican, anchored by an R+21 partisan voting index and the incumbent Mark Alford's 71 percent victory in 2024. Alford faces two primary challengers on August 4, while Democrats field a scattered group with no prominent frontrunner. Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, and trader pricing at 93.5 percent for a Republican win aligns with this baseline and the absence of recent polling shifts or notable endorsements favoring Democrats. Late developments such as an incumbent scandal, an unusually strong Democratic primary winner, or broader national economic shocks could narrow the margin, though the district's electoral math makes such reversals improbable before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$30,403結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district remains structurally Republican, anchored by an R+21 partisan voting index and the incumbent Mark Alford's 71 percent victory in 2024. Alford faces two primary challengers on August 4, while Democrats field a scattered group with no prominent frontrunner. Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, and trader pricing at 93.5 percent for a Republican win aligns with this baseline and the absence of recent polling shifts or notable endorsements favoring Democrats. Late developments such as an incumbent scandal, an unusually strong Democratic primary winner, or broader national economic shocks could narrow the margin, though the district's electoral math makes such reversals improbable before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$30,403結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 4th congressional district remains structurally Republican, anchored by an R+21 partisan voting index and the incumbent Mark Alford's 71 percent victory in 2024. Alford faces two primary challengers on August 4, while Democrats field a scattered group with no prominent frontrunner. Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, and trader pricing at 93.5 percent for a Republican win aligns with this baseline and the absence of recent polling shifts or notable endorsements favoring Democrats. Late developments such as an incumbent scandal, an unusually strong Democratic primary winner, or broader national economic shocks could narrow the margin, though the district's electoral math makes such reversals improbable before November 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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