Traders assign a 79.5% implied probability to “No” primarily because official forecasts point to below-normal North Atlantic hurricane activity for the remainder of 2026, driven by a strengthening El Niño that typically suppresses tropical cyclone formation. NOAA’s latest outlook gives a 55% chance of a below-normal season with only 8–14 named storms, while first-half global insured catastrophe losses of roughly $42–47 billion fell well below long-term averages. Recent small-magnitude earthquakes and localized wildfires have not met typical market-resolution thresholds for major events. Upcoming NOAA and NHC model updates through September will provide further clarity on whether conditions remain subdued.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
21% 機率
$246,739 交易量
$246,739 交易量
2026-12-31
是
21% 機率
$246,739 交易量
$246,739 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 79.5% implied probability to “No” primarily because official forecasts point to below-normal North Atlantic hurricane activity for the remainder of 2026, driven by a strengthening El Niño that typically suppresses tropical cyclone formation. NOAA’s latest outlook gives a 55% chance of a below-normal season with only 8–14 named storms, while first-half global insured catastrophe losses of roughly $42–47 billion fell well below long-term averages. Recent small-magnitude earthquakes and localized wildfires have not met typical market-resolution thresholds for major events. Upcoming NOAA and NHC model updates through September will provide further clarity on whether conditions remain subdued.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$246,739結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 79.5% implied probability to “No” primarily because official forecasts point to below-normal North Atlantic hurricane activity for the remainder of 2026, driven by a strengthening El Niño that typically suppresses tropical cyclone formation. NOAA’s latest outlook gives a 55% chance of a below-normal season with only 8–14 named storms, while first-half global insured catastrophe losses of roughly $42–47 billion fell well below long-term averages. Recent small-magnitude earthquakes and localized wildfires have not met typical market-resolution thresholds for major events. Upcoming NOAA and NHC model updates through September will provide further clarity on whether conditions remain subdued.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$246,739結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETTraders assign a 79.5% implied probability to “No” primarily because official forecasts point to below-normal North Atlantic hurricane activity for the remainder of 2026, driven by a strengthening El Niño that typically suppresses tropical cyclone formation. NOAA’s latest outlook gives a 55% chance of a below-normal season with only 8–14 named storms, while first-half global insured catastrophe losses of roughly $42–47 billion fell well below long-term averages. Recent small-magnitude earthquakes and localized wildfires have not met typical market-resolution thresholds for major events. Upcoming NOAA and NHC model updates through September will provide further clarity on whether conditions remain subdued.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions