Trader sentiment favoring the "No" outcome at 75.5% implied probability stems from stable mid-2026 conditions, with NOAA and USGS reports showing ENSO-neutral patterns and seismic activity near historical baselines rather than elevated risks. Global forecast models indicate typical probabilities for events like category 3+ hurricanes or magnitude 7 earthquakes, without the atmospheric steering patterns or fault stress that historically drive major disasters. Peak-season monitoring from the National Hurricane Center and ongoing USGS updates through late 2026 remain the key variables that could shift consensus if new data reveal intensifying trends or unusual clustering.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$218,963 交易量
$218,963 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$218,963 交易量
$218,963 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader sentiment favoring the "No" outcome at 75.5% implied probability stems from stable mid-2026 conditions, with NOAA and USGS reports showing ENSO-neutral patterns and seismic activity near historical baselines rather than elevated risks. Global forecast models indicate typical probabilities for events like category 3+ hurricanes or magnitude 7 earthquakes, without the atmospheric steering patterns or fault stress that historically drive major disasters. Peak-season monitoring from the National Hurricane Center and ongoing USGS updates through late 2026 remain the key variables that could shift consensus if new data reveal intensifying trends or unusual clustering.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$218,963結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader sentiment favoring the "No" outcome at 75.5% implied probability stems from stable mid-2026 conditions, with NOAA and USGS reports showing ENSO-neutral patterns and seismic activity near historical baselines rather than elevated risks. Global forecast models indicate typical probabilities for events like category 3+ hurricanes or magnitude 7 earthquakes, without the atmospheric steering patterns or fault stress that historically drive major disasters. Peak-season monitoring from the National Hurricane Center and ongoing USGS updates through late 2026 remain the key variables that could shift consensus if new data reveal intensifying trends or unusual clustering.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$218,963結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment favoring the "No" outcome at 75.5% implied probability stems from stable mid-2026 conditions, with NOAA and USGS reports showing ENSO-neutral patterns and seismic activity near historical baselines rather than elevated risks. Global forecast models indicate typical probabilities for events like category 3+ hurricanes or magnitude 7 earthquakes, without the atmospheric steering patterns or fault stress that historically drive major disasters. Peak-season monitoring from the National Hurricane Center and ongoing USGS updates through late 2026 remain the key variables that could shift consensus if new data reveal intensifying trends or unusual clustering.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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