Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, his reelection advantage after a 2020 victory, and substantial fundraising backed by party infrastructure. Recent polling shows Luján leading Republican write-in nominee Larry Marker by double digits, with analysts rating the contest as safe or solid Democratic. The Republican side faced primary disqualification issues and limited ballot access, resulting in a low-visibility challenger. Trader consensus at 96.9% for the Democrat aligns with these structural factors and polling trends. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-campaign developments such as scandals, health events, or sharp national shifts altering turnout among independents and base voters before the November 3 election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$25,937 交易量
$25,937 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
97%
共和黨
4%
$25,937 交易量
$25,937 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$16,678 交易量
97%
共和黨
$9,258 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, his reelection advantage after a 2020 victory, and substantial fundraising backed by party infrastructure. Recent polling shows Luján leading Republican write-in nominee Larry Marker by double digits, with analysts rating the contest as safe or solid Democratic. The Republican side faced primary disqualification issues and limited ballot access, resulting in a low-visibility challenger. Trader consensus at 96.9% for the Democrat aligns with these structural factors and polling trends. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-campaign developments such as scandals, health events, or sharp national shifts altering turnout among independents and base voters before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$25,937結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, his reelection advantage after a 2020 victory, and substantial fundraising backed by party infrastructure. Recent polling shows Luján leading Republican write-in nominee Larry Marker by double digits, with analysts rating the contest as safe or solid Democratic. The Republican side faced primary disqualification issues and limited ballot access, resulting in a low-visibility challenger. Trader consensus at 96.9% for the Democrat aligns with these structural factors and polling trends. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-campaign developments such as scandals, health events, or sharp national shifts altering turnout among independents and base voters before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$25,937結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETIncumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, his reelection advantage after a 2020 victory, and substantial fundraising backed by party infrastructure. Recent polling shows Luján leading Republican write-in nominee Larry Marker by double digits, with analysts rating the contest as safe or solid Democratic. The Republican side faced primary disqualification issues and limited ballot access, resulting in a low-visibility challenger. Trader consensus at 96.9% for the Democrat aligns with these structural factors and polling trends. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-campaign developments such as scandals, health events, or sharp national shifts altering turnout among independents and base voters before the November 3 election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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