Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, reflected in trader consensus around 97 percent for the Democratic nominee. Luján easily secured his party's nomination in the June primary and benefits from strong name recognition, substantial fundraising, and broad support among independents in a state that has favored Democrats in recent Senate and presidential contests. The Republican side has faced significant hurdles, with the initial primary candidate disqualified and nominee Larry Marker entering as a write-in with limited visibility and resources, as shown in an August poll placing Luján ahead 53-38 percent. While the outcome remains subject to standard election uncertainties such as turnout shifts or late developments, structural and organizational factors have consolidated the current market positioning ahead of the November vote.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$25,937 交易量
$25,937 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
97%
共和黨
4%
$25,937 交易量
$25,937 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$16,678 交易量
97%
共和黨
$9,258 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, reflected in trader consensus around 97 percent for the Democratic nominee. Luján easily secured his party's nomination in the June primary and benefits from strong name recognition, substantial fundraising, and broad support among independents in a state that has favored Democrats in recent Senate and presidential contests. The Republican side has faced significant hurdles, with the initial primary candidate disqualified and nominee Larry Marker entering as a write-in with limited visibility and resources, as shown in an August poll placing Luján ahead 53-38 percent. While the outcome remains subject to standard election uncertainties such as turnout shifts or late developments, structural and organizational factors have consolidated the current market positioning ahead of the November vote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$25,937結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, reflected in trader consensus around 97 percent for the Democratic nominee. Luján easily secured his party's nomination in the June primary and benefits from strong name recognition, substantial fundraising, and broad support among independents in a state that has favored Democrats in recent Senate and presidential contests. The Republican side has faced significant hurdles, with the initial primary candidate disqualified and nominee Larry Marker entering as a write-in with limited visibility and resources, as shown in an August poll placing Luján ahead 53-38 percent. While the outcome remains subject to standard election uncertainties such as turnout shifts or late developments, structural and organizational factors have consolidated the current market positioning ahead of the November vote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$25,937結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETIncumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, reflected in trader consensus around 97 percent for the Democratic nominee. Luján easily secured his party's nomination in the June primary and benefits from strong name recognition, substantial fundraising, and broad support among independents in a state that has favored Democrats in recent Senate and presidential contests. The Republican side has faced significant hurdles, with the initial primary candidate disqualified and nominee Larry Marker entering as a write-in with limited visibility and resources, as shown in an August poll placing Luján ahead 53-38 percent. While the outcome remains subject to standard election uncertainties such as turnout shifts or late developments, structural and organizational factors have consolidated the current market positioning ahead of the November vote.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions