PL’s strong organizational reach and recent party switches have expanded its congressional bloc ahead of the October 2026 renewal of 54 Senate seats, positioning the party with competitive or leading candidates across multiple states following the April registration deadline. Traders assign PL a 76.5% implied probability of securing the most seats because its national structure supports right-leaning contenders in a fragmented field where no other party has consolidated comparable statewide advantages. PT, UNIÃO, and smaller groups trail at single-digit levels amid limited recent shifts that could alter current positioning before the election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於巴西自由黨（PL） 81%
進步黨（PP） 7.4%
UNIÃO 3.6%
巴西工人黨（PT） 3.4%
$14,137 交易量
$14,137 交易量
2026-10-04
巴西自由黨（PL）
81%
進步黨（PP）
7%
UNIÃO
4%
巴西工人黨（PT）
3%
巴西社會民主黨（PSDB）
3%
NOVO
2%
PDT
2%
共和黨
2%
巴西社會黨（PSB）
2%
PSD
2%
PODEMOS
2%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB）
1%
巴西自由黨（PL） 81%
進步黨（PP） 7.4%
UNIÃO 3.6%
巴西工人黨（PT） 3.4%
$14,137 交易量
$14,137 交易量
2026-10-04
巴西自由黨（PL）
$3,060 交易量
81%
進步黨（PP）
$588 交易量
7%
UNIÃO
$606 交易量
4%
巴西工人黨（PT）
$844 交易量
3%
巴西社會民主黨（PSDB）
$779 交易量
3%
NOVO
$581 交易量
2%
PDT
$4,076 交易量
2%
共和黨
$618 交易量
2%
巴西社會黨（PSB）
$606 交易量
2%
PSD
$847 交易量
2%
PODEMOS
$838 交易量
2%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB）
$696 交易量
1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).PL’s strong organizational reach and recent party switches have expanded its congressional bloc ahead of the October 2026 renewal of 54 Senate seats, positioning the party with competitive or leading candidates across multiple states following the April registration deadline. Traders assign PL a 76.5% implied probability of securing the most seats because its national structure supports right-leaning contenders in a fragmented field where no other party has consolidated comparable statewide advantages. PT, UNIÃO, and smaller groups trail at single-digit levels amid limited recent shifts that could alter current positioning before the election.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$14,137結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).PL’s strong organizational reach and recent party switches have expanded its congressional bloc ahead of the October 2026 renewal of 54 Senate seats, positioning the party with competitive or leading candidates across multiple states following the April registration deadline. Traders assign PL a 76.5% implied probability of securing the most seats because its national structure supports right-leaning contenders in a fragmented field where no other party has consolidated comparable statewide advantages. PT, UNIÃO, and smaller groups trail at single-digit levels amid limited recent shifts that could alter current positioning before the election.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
交易量
$14,137結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...PL’s strong organizational reach and recent party switches have expanded its congressional bloc ahead of the October 2026 renewal of 54 Senate seats, positioning the party with competitive or leading candidates across multiple states following the April registration deadline. Traders assign PL a 76.5% implied probability of securing the most seats because its national structure supports right-leaning contenders in a fragmented field where no other party has consolidated comparable statewide advantages. PT, UNIÃO, and smaller groups trail at single-digit levels amid limited recent shifts that could alter current positioning before the election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions