The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent polls show Jordan Bardella of the National Rally leading first-round voting intentions near 30 percent ahead of the April 2027 contest, with Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon clustered behind, reflecting RN strength on immigration and security alongside a fragmented center and divided left. Marine Le Pen’s pending appeal on her embezzlement conviction and potential office ban have shifted trader attention toward Bardella as the likely RN standard-bearer. Philippe’s positioning as a Macron-era successor faces headwinds from investigations and weak consolidation among centrist voters, while Mélenchon’s recent gains highlight left-wing mobilization. These crosscurrents, plus uncertainty over runoff pairings and coalition dynamics, keep probabilities closely matched among the top three and limit separation until clearer candidate fields and voter alignments emerge.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Recent polls show Jordan Bardella of the National Rally leading first-round voting intentions near 30 percent ahead of the April 2027 contest, with Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon clustered behind, reflecting RN strength on immigration and security alongside a fragmented center and divided left. Marine Le Pen’s pending appeal on her embezzlement conviction and potential office ban have shifted trader attention toward Bardella as the likely RN standard-bearer. Philippe’s positioning as a Macron-era successor faces headwinds from investigations and weak consolidation among centrist voters, while Mélenchon’s recent gains highlight left-wing mobilization. These crosscurrents, plus uncertainty over runoff pairings and coalition dynamics, keep probabilities closely matched among the top three and limit separation until clearer candidate fields and voter alignments emerge.
Court of Appeal to rule on Marine Le Pen's eligibility to run in 2027 election
The Paris Court of Appeal was expected to decide in summer 2026 whether Marine Le Pen could run in the 2027 presidential election, creating uncertainty around her candidacy and affecting related market prices.
Jun 20 2026
Jordan Bardella gains as Marine Le Pen's substitute candidate amid legal uncertainty
Jordan Bardella rises to 26%4%
With Marine Le Pen's legal troubles ongoing, Jordan Bardella's market probability stabilized and slightly increased as he was positioned as the National Rally's substitute candidate for 2027.
Jun 20 2026
Bruno Retailleau holds grand meeting in Paris as presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau held a major campaign event in Paris, signaling his active campaign for the 2027 presidential election and attempting to boost his visibility and support.
May 22 2026
Gabriel Attal officially enters 2027 French presidential race
Gabriel Attal drops to 3%13%
Gabriel Attal announced his candidacy on May 22, 2026, aiming to represent the centrist Renaissance party and distinguish himself from Macron's legacy, which led to a decline in his market price.
May 22 2026
Gabriel Attal officially announces 2027 presidential candidacy
Gabriel Attal drops to 6%10%
Gabriel Attal, former Prime Minister and Secretary General of Renaissance, officially declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, entering the crowded centrist field and impacting market probabilities for himself and rivals.
May 7 2026
Judicial probe opened against Édouard Philippe over alleged corruption
Édouard Philippe drops to 14%7%
A judicial investigation was opened against Édouard Philippe concerning alleged misappropriation of public funds and conflict of interest, potentially damaging his presidential campaign prospects and causing a decline in market probability.
May 3 2026
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces fourth presidential run for 2027
Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%2%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon confirmed his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, aiming to capitalize on his left-wing base despite a fragmented left, affecting his market probability.
May 3 2026
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Jean-Luc Mélenchon drops to 12%6%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially declared his candidacy on May 3, 2026, positioning himself as the main left-wing contender and influencing his market price downward due to competition and polarization.
Apr 29 2026
Paris appeals court sets July 7 verdict date for Marine Le Pen's appeal trial
Marine Le Pen dips to 6%2%
The court announced the verdict date for Le Pen's appeal trial, heightening uncertainty about her presidential bid and boosting Bardella's prospects as her potential replacement, impacting their market prices.
Apr 19 2026
Bruno Retailleau nominated as The Republicans candidate for 2027 election
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Bruno Retailleau was nominated by The Republicans party as their candidate for the 2027 presidential election, consolidating his position and influencing market prices.
Mar 15 2026
Édouard Philippe re-elected mayor of Le Havre, strengthening presidential bid
Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%7%
Édouard Philippe's re-election as mayor of Le Havre bolstered his position as a credible centrist candidate for the 2027 presidential election, reflected in stable market probabilities.
Jan 14 2026
Jordan Bardella criticizes Trump’s Greenland policy, signaling political distancing
Jordan Bardella jumps to 31%5%
Jordan Bardella publicly denounced U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to Greenland, calling it 'commercial blackmail' and warning against subjugation. This move indicated Bardella’s effort to assert an independent nationalist stance, which helped maintain his market support amid Le Pen’s legal troubles.
Jan 14 2026
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins, presidential bid at risk
Marine Le Pen dips to 9%1%
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial started in January 2026 to contest her conviction and ban from running in 2027. The trial's outcome is critical for her candidacy and the far-right's electoral prospects.
Jan 13 2026
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial opens, ruling expected by July 2026
Marine Le Pen dips to 9%1%
The appeal trial for Marine Le Pen's conviction began, with a ruling expected in July 2026. The outcome would determine whether she can run in the 2027 election, creating uncertainty and affecting market prices for her and Jordan Bardella.
Jan 7 2026
Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial opens in Paris, threatening her 2027 presidential bid
Marine Le Pen drops to 7%9%
Marine Le Pen appeared in court to appeal her conviction for misusing EU funds, with a potential ban from holding office that could prevent her from running in 2027. This legal uncertainty caused her market price to drop sharply, while Jordan Bardella's price rose as he was seen as the likely successor.
Jan 2 2026
Édouard Philippe positions himself as natural successor to Macron
Édouard Philippe, former prime minister and leader in Macron's party Renaissance, worked to establish himself as the natural choice successor to Emmanuel Macron, influencing his market standing.
Jan 1 2026
Jordan Bardella distances himself from Trump over Greenland tariff dispute
Jordan Bardella drops to 26%5%
Jordan Bardella criticized U.S. President Trump's Greenland tariff threats, signaling a shift in his stance and possibly affecting his support among nationalist voters, reflected in minor price fluctuations.
Nov 22 2025
No clear dominant candidate emerges in fractured former majority coalition
A report highlighted the lack of a 'natural' candidate dominating the fractured former majority coalition ahead of the 2027 election, reflecting political uncertainty and contributing to market volatility among candidates like Édouard Philippe and others.
Nov 14 2025
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins in Paris over EU funds misuse
Marine Le Pen drops to 11%5%
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial opened, raising questions about her eligibility for the 2027 presidential race. The trial's outcome could bar her from running, causing market uncertainty and impacting her and Jordan Bardella's prices.
Nov 14 2025
Marine Le Pen convicted and banned from 2027 presidential run
Marine Le Pen drops to 10%6%
Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzlement and banned from holding public office for five years, effectively barring her from the 2027 presidential election. This legal setback shifted far-right support towards Jordan Bardella, impacting their market probabilities.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent polls show Jordan Bardella of the National Rally leading first-round voting intentions near 30 percent ahead of the April 2027 contest, with Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon clustered behind, reflecting RN strength on immigration and security alongside a fragmented center and divided left. Marine Le Pen’s pending appeal on her embezzlement conviction and potential office ban have shifted trader attention toward Bardella as the likely RN standard-bearer. Philippe’s positioning as a Macron-era successor faces headwinds from investigations and weak consolidation among centrist voters, while Mélenchon’s recent gains highlight left-wing mobilization. These crosscurrents, plus uncertainty over runoff pairings and coalition dynamics, keep probabilities closely matched among the top three and limit separation until clearer candidate fields and voter alignments emerge.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Recent polls show Jordan Bardella of the National Rally leading first-round voting intentions near 30 percent ahead of the April 2027 contest, with Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon clustered behind, reflecting RN strength on immigration and security alongside a fragmented center and divided left. Marine Le Pen’s pending appeal on her embezzlement conviction and potential office ban have shifted trader attention toward Bardella as the likely RN standard-bearer. Philippe’s positioning as a Macron-era successor faces headwinds from investigations and weak consolidation among centrist voters, while Mélenchon’s recent gains highlight left-wing mobilization. These crosscurrents, plus uncertainty over runoff pairings and coalition dynamics, keep probabilities closely matched among the top three and limit separation until clearer candidate fields and voter alignments emerge.
Court of Appeal to rule on Marine Le Pen's eligibility to run in 2027 election
The Paris Court of Appeal was expected to decide in summer 2026 whether Marine Le Pen could run in the 2027 presidential election, creating uncertainty around her candidacy and affecting related market prices.
Jun 20 2026
Jordan Bardella gains as Marine Le Pen's substitute candidate amid legal uncertainty
Jordan Bardella rises to 26%4%
With Marine Le Pen's legal troubles ongoing, Jordan Bardella's market probability stabilized and slightly increased as he was positioned as the National Rally's substitute candidate for 2027.
Jun 20 2026
Bruno Retailleau holds grand meeting in Paris as presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau held a major campaign event in Paris, signaling his active campaign for the 2027 presidential election and attempting to boost his visibility and support.
May 22 2026
Gabriel Attal officially enters 2027 French presidential race
Gabriel Attal drops to 3%13%
Gabriel Attal announced his candidacy on May 22, 2026, aiming to represent the centrist Renaissance party and distinguish himself from Macron's legacy, which led to a decline in his market price.
May 22 2026
Gabriel Attal officially announces 2027 presidential candidacy
Gabriel Attal drops to 6%10%
Gabriel Attal, former Prime Minister and Secretary General of Renaissance, officially declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, entering the crowded centrist field and impacting market probabilities for himself and rivals.
May 7 2026
Judicial probe opened against Édouard Philippe over alleged corruption
Édouard Philippe drops to 14%7%
A judicial investigation was opened against Édouard Philippe concerning alleged misappropriation of public funds and conflict of interest, potentially damaging his presidential campaign prospects and causing a decline in market probability.
May 3 2026
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces fourth presidential run for 2027
Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%2%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon confirmed his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, aiming to capitalize on his left-wing base despite a fragmented left, affecting his market probability.
May 3 2026
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Jean-Luc Mélenchon drops to 12%6%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially declared his candidacy on May 3, 2026, positioning himself as the main left-wing contender and influencing his market price downward due to competition and polarization.
Apr 29 2026
Paris appeals court sets July 7 verdict date for Marine Le Pen's appeal trial
Marine Le Pen dips to 6%2%
The court announced the verdict date for Le Pen's appeal trial, heightening uncertainty about her presidential bid and boosting Bardella's prospects as her potential replacement, impacting their market prices.
Apr 19 2026
Bruno Retailleau nominated as The Republicans candidate for 2027 election
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Bruno Retailleau was nominated by The Republicans party as their candidate for the 2027 presidential election, consolidating his position and influencing market prices.
Mar 15 2026
Édouard Philippe re-elected mayor of Le Havre, strengthening presidential bid
Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%7%
Édouard Philippe's re-election as mayor of Le Havre bolstered his position as a credible centrist candidate for the 2027 presidential election, reflected in stable market probabilities.
Jan 14 2026
Jordan Bardella criticizes Trump’s Greenland policy, signaling political distancing
Jordan Bardella jumps to 31%5%
Jordan Bardella publicly denounced U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to Greenland, calling it 'commercial blackmail' and warning against subjugation. This move indicated Bardella’s effort to assert an independent nationalist stance, which helped maintain his market support amid Le Pen’s legal troubles.
Jan 14 2026
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins, presidential bid at risk
Marine Le Pen dips to 9%1%
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial started in January 2026 to contest her conviction and ban from running in 2027. The trial's outcome is critical for her candidacy and the far-right's electoral prospects.
Jan 13 2026
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial opens, ruling expected by July 2026
Marine Le Pen dips to 9%1%
The appeal trial for Marine Le Pen's conviction began, with a ruling expected in July 2026. The outcome would determine whether she can run in the 2027 election, creating uncertainty and affecting market prices for her and Jordan Bardella.
Jan 7 2026
Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial opens in Paris, threatening her 2027 presidential bid
Marine Le Pen drops to 7%9%
Marine Le Pen appeared in court to appeal her conviction for misusing EU funds, with a potential ban from holding office that could prevent her from running in 2027. This legal uncertainty caused her market price to drop sharply, while Jordan Bardella's price rose as he was seen as the likely successor.
Jan 2 2026
Édouard Philippe positions himself as natural successor to Macron
Édouard Philippe, former prime minister and leader in Macron's party Renaissance, worked to establish himself as the natural choice successor to Emmanuel Macron, influencing his market standing.
Jan 1 2026
Jordan Bardella distances himself from Trump over Greenland tariff dispute
Jordan Bardella drops to 26%5%
Jordan Bardella criticized U.S. President Trump's Greenland tariff threats, signaling a shift in his stance and possibly affecting his support among nationalist voters, reflected in minor price fluctuations.
Nov 22 2025
No clear dominant candidate emerges in fractured former majority coalition
A report highlighted the lack of a 'natural' candidate dominating the fractured former majority coalition ahead of the 2027 election, reflecting political uncertainty and contributing to market volatility among candidates like Édouard Philippe and others.
Nov 14 2025
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins in Paris over EU funds misuse
Marine Le Pen drops to 11%5%
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial opened, raising questions about her eligibility for the 2027 presidential race. The trial's outcome could bar her from running, causing market uncertainty and impacting her and Jordan Bardella's prices.
Nov 14 2025
Marine Le Pen convicted and banned from 2027 presidential run
Marine Le Pen drops to 10%6%
Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzlement and banned from holding public office for five years, effectively barring her from the 2027 presidential election. This legal setback shifted far-right support towards Jordan Bardella, impacting their market probabilities.
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions
"Next French Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 26%, followed by "Édouard Philippe" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Next French Presidential Election" has generated $106.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Next French Presidential Election," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election" is "Jordan Bardella" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Next French Presidential Election." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $106.7 million traded on “Next French Presidential Election,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Next French Presidential Election," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 26¢ for "Jordan Bardella" in the "Next French Presidential Election" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 26% chance that "Jordan Bardella" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 26¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 74¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Next French Presidential Election" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Apr 29, 2027. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Next French Presidential Election" market has an active community of 576 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Next French Presidential Election." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions