Anthropic holds a narrow lead over OpenAI in trader-implied odds for second-best AI agent lab by end-September, reflecting their closely matched frontier positions in agentic capabilities. Anthropic’s recent Claude Opus and Sonnet releases emphasize long-context reasoning, managed agent harnesses, and strong performance on benchmarks such as OSWorld and coding agent tasks, bolstered by its safety-focused positioning and talent acquisitions. OpenAI counters with GPT-5.x iterations featuring native computer use, expanded context windows, and multi-agent collaboration for long-running workflows. SpaceXAI’s lower odds align with Grok’s solid but trailing agent benchmarks, while broader uncertainty stems from rapid model iteration cycles, potential September releases, and shifting competitive edges in autonomous AI systems.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 42%
OpenAI 37%
SpaceXAI 13%
Moonshot 6.9%

Anthropic
42%

OpenAI
37%

SpaceXAI
13%

Moonshot
7%

Z.ai
3%

Baidu
3%

3%

Xiaomi
3%

Nvidia
3%

MiniMax
2%

Microsoft
2%

Mistral
2%

Meta
2%

ByteDance
1%

Alibaba
1%

Amazon
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Meituan
1%
Anthropic 42%
OpenAI 37%
SpaceXAI 13%
Moonshot 6.9%

Anthropic
42%

OpenAI
37%

SpaceXAI
13%

Moonshot
7%

Z.ai
3%

Baidu
3%

3%

Xiaomi
3%

Nvidia
3%

MiniMax
2%

Microsoft
2%

Mistral
2%

Meta
2%

ByteDance
1%

Alibaba
1%

Amazon
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Meituan
1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a narrow lead over OpenAI in trader-implied odds for second-best AI agent lab by end-September, reflecting their closely matched frontier positions in agentic capabilities. Anthropic’s recent Claude Opus and Sonnet releases emphasize long-context reasoning, managed agent harnesses, and strong performance on benchmarks such as OSWorld and coding agent tasks, bolstered by its safety-focused positioning and talent acquisitions. OpenAI counters with GPT-5.x iterations featuring native computer use, expanded context windows, and multi-agent collaboration for long-running workflows. SpaceXAI’s lower odds align with Grok’s solid but trailing agent benchmarks, while broader uncertainty stems from rapid model iteration cycles, potential September releases, and shifting competitive edges in autonomous AI systems.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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