OpenAI holds overwhelming trader consensus at 100% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of August due to its recent advancements in agentic large language models, including improved reasoning chains and tool-use benchmarks that have outpaced most competitors in demonstrated capabilities. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI's established developer ecosystem, frequent model iterations, and real-world deployments more heavily than rivals amid a fast-moving competitive landscape. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a last-minute breakthrough release or benchmark lead from a lab like Anthropic or a new entrant, though the proximity to resolution leaves limited room for such reversals to register before the market closes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於OpenAI 100.0%
Anthropic <1%
Z.ai <1%
SpaceXAI <1%
$24,649 交易量
$24,649 交易量
2026-08-31
Anthropic
No
OpenAI
Yes
Z.ai
No
SpaceXAI
No
Meta
No
Alibaba
No
No
Moonshot
No
DeepSeek
No
Xiaomi
No
MiniMax
No
Nvidia
No
ByteDance
No
Baidu
No
Amazon
No
Mistral
No
Meituan
No
Microsoft
No
OpenAI 100.0%
Anthropic <1%
Z.ai <1%
SpaceXAI <1%
$24,649 交易量
$24,649 交易量
2026-08-31
Anthropic
$1,618 交易量
No
OpenAI
$6,994 交易量
Yes
Z.ai
$1,752 交易量
No
SpaceXAI
$443 交易量
No
Meta
$378 交易量
No
Alibaba
$715 交易量
No
$363 交易量
No
Moonshot
$6,019 交易量
No
DeepSeek
$707 交易量
No
Xiaomi
$1,163 交易量
No
MiniMax
$489 交易量
No
Nvidia
$622 交易量
No
ByteDance
$954 交易量
No
Baidu
$592 交易量
No
Amazon
$323 交易量
No
Mistral
$450 交易量
No
Meituan
$336 交易量
No
Microsoft
$733 交易量
No
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI holds overwhelming trader consensus at 100% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of August due to its recent advancements in agentic large language models, including improved reasoning chains and tool-use benchmarks that have outpaced most competitors in demonstrated capabilities. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI's established developer ecosystem, frequent model iterations, and real-world deployments more heavily than rivals amid a fast-moving competitive landscape. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a last-minute breakthrough release or benchmark lead from a lab like Anthropic or a new entrant, though the proximity to resolution leaves limited room for such reversals to register before the market closes.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
交易量
$24,649結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI holds overwhelming trader consensus at 100% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of August due to its recent advancements in agentic large language models, including improved reasoning chains and tool-use benchmarks that have outpaced most competitors in demonstrated capabilities. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI's established developer ecosystem, frequent model iterations, and real-world deployments more heavily than rivals amid a fast-moving competitive landscape. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a last-minute breakthrough release or benchmark lead from a lab like Anthropic or a new entrant, though the proximity to resolution leaves limited room for such reversals to register before the market closes.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$24,649結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
OpenAI holds overwhelming trader consensus at 100% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of August due to its recent advancements in agentic large language models, including improved reasoning chains and tool-use benchmarks that have outpaced most competitors in demonstrated capabilities. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI's established developer ecosystem, frequent model iterations, and real-world deployments more heavily than rivals amid a fast-moving competitive landscape. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a last-minute breakthrough release or benchmark lead from a lab like Anthropic or a new entrant, though the proximity to resolution leaves limited room for such reversals to register before the market closes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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