The U.S. nuclear testing market reflects trader focus on longstanding policy and technical constraints. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—citing alleged violations through subcritical or decoupled events—prompted initial attention, yet subsequent statements from administration officials emphasized simulations, stockpile stewardship activities, and non-explosive assessments rather than yield-producing detonations. The U.S. voluntary moratorium on explosive tests has held since 1992, while National Nuclear Security Administration readiness timelines indicate an underground explosive test would require up to 36 months of preparation. Funding allocations in recent defense legislation support related modernization but do not alter the near-term barriers. No scheduled events or confirmed plans point to a test before year-end, sustaining low implied probabilities in the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$770,068 交易量
2026-09-29
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
4%
$770,068 交易量
2026年9月30日
$57,189 交易量
1%
2026年12月31日
$52,068 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. nuclear testing market reflects trader focus on longstanding policy and technical constraints. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—citing alleged violations through subcritical or decoupled events—prompted initial attention, yet subsequent statements from administration officials emphasized simulations, stockpile stewardship activities, and non-explosive assessments rather than yield-producing detonations. The U.S. voluntary moratorium on explosive tests has held since 1992, while National Nuclear Security Administration readiness timelines indicate an underground explosive test would require up to 36 months of preparation. Funding allocations in recent defense legislation support related modernization but do not alter the near-term barriers. No scheduled events or confirmed plans point to a test before year-end, sustaining low implied probabilities in the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$770,068結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. nuclear testing market reflects trader focus on longstanding policy and technical constraints. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—citing alleged violations through subcritical or decoupled events—prompted initial attention, yet subsequent statements from administration officials emphasized simulations, stockpile stewardship activities, and non-explosive assessments rather than yield-producing detonations. The U.S. voluntary moratorium on explosive tests has held since 1992, while National Nuclear Security Administration readiness timelines indicate an underground explosive test would require up to 36 months of preparation. Funding allocations in recent defense legislation support related modernization but do not alter the near-term barriers. No scheduled events or confirmed plans point to a test before year-end, sustaining low implied probabilities in the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$770,068結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. nuclear testing market reflects trader focus on longstanding policy and technical constraints. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—citing alleged violations through subcritical or decoupled events—prompted initial attention, yet subsequent statements from administration officials emphasized simulations, stockpile stewardship activities, and non-explosive assessments rather than yield-producing detonations. The U.S. voluntary moratorium on explosive tests has held since 1992, while National Nuclear Security Administration readiness timelines indicate an underground explosive test would require up to 36 months of preparation. Funding allocations in recent defense legislation support related modernization but do not alter the near-term barriers. No scheduled events or confirmed plans point to a test before year-end, sustaining low implied probabilities in the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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