Recent developments in US-Iran indirect negotiations explain the market's leading outcomes. Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to no diplomatic meeting by June 30, reflecting stalled progress after Iran rejected US proposals as unreasonable in mid-May and delivered its counteroffer through Pakistan. Islamabad's role as the primary mediator accounts for its second-place positioning, following the April 2026 rounds there that produced no agreement amid disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues. Earlier sessions in Oman and Switzerland have not produced follow-up momentum, while broader ceasefire tensions and mediation efforts continue without confirmed next steps. These factors leave the timing and venue highly uncertain through early summer.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於至6月30日無會談 49.1%
巴基斯坦 33.7%
其他 3.0%
瑞士 2.9%
$6,455,958 交易量
$6,455,958 交易量
2026-06-30
至6月30日無會談
49%
巴基斯坦
34%
其他
3%
瑞士
3%
阿曼
2%
卡塔爾
1%
美國
1%
奧地利
1%
土耳其
<1%
埃及
<1%
意大利
<1%
伊朗
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
其他－中東／北非
<1%
其他 - 歐洲
<1%
沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%
俄羅斯
<1%
阿聯酋
<1%
哈薩克
<1%
至6月30日無會談 49.1%
巴基斯坦 33.7%
其他 3.0%
瑞士 2.9%
$6,455,958 交易量
$6,455,958 交易量
2026-06-30
至6月30日無會談
$839,885 交易量
49%
巴基斯坦
$695,953 交易量
34%
其他
$273,329 交易量
3%
瑞士
$320,160 交易量
3%
阿曼
$298,908 交易量
2%
卡塔爾
$293,120 交易量
1%
美國
$191,061 交易量
1%
奧地利
$209,947 交易量
1%
土耳其
$307,497 交易量
<1%
埃及
$218,446 交易量
<1%
意大利
$117,581 交易量
<1%
伊朗
$807,470 交易量
<1%
伊拉克
$774,065 交易量
<1%
其他－中東／北非
$196,137 交易量
<1%
其他 - 歐洲
$276,800 交易量
<1%
沙烏地阿拉伯
$224,290 交易量
<1%
俄羅斯
$205,149 交易量
<1%
阿聯酋
$134,561 交易量
<1%
哈薩克
$71,598 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent developments in US-Iran indirect negotiations explain the market's leading outcomes. Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to no diplomatic meeting by June 30, reflecting stalled progress after Iran rejected US proposals as unreasonable in mid-May and delivered its counteroffer through Pakistan. Islamabad's role as the primary mediator accounts for its second-place positioning, following the April 2026 rounds there that produced no agreement amid disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues. Earlier sessions in Oman and Switzerland have not produced follow-up momentum, while broader ceasefire tensions and mediation efforts continue without confirmed next steps. These factors leave the timing and venue highly uncertain through early summer.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Apr 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
交易量
$6,455,958結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Apr 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent developments in US-Iran indirect negotiations explain the market's leading outcomes. Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to no diplomatic meeting by June 30, reflecting stalled progress after Iran rejected US proposals as unreasonable in mid-May and delivered its counteroffer through Pakistan. Islamabad's role as the primary mediator accounts for its second-place positioning, following the April 2026 rounds there that produced no agreement amid disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues. Earlier sessions in Oman and Switzerland have not produced follow-up momentum, while broader ceasefire tensions and mediation efforts continue without confirmed next steps. These factors leave the timing and venue highly uncertain through early summer.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$6,455,958結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Apr 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent developments in US-Iran indirect negotiations explain the market's leading outcomes. Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to no diplomatic meeting by June 30, reflecting stalled progress after Iran rejected US proposals as unreasonable in mid-May and delivered its counteroffer through Pakistan. Islamabad's role as the primary mediator accounts for its second-place positioning, following the April 2026 rounds there that produced no agreement amid disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues. Earlier sessions in Oman and Switzerland have not produced follow-up momentum, while broader ceasefire tensions and mediation efforts continue without confirmed next steps. These factors leave the timing and venue highly uncertain through early summer.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions