US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which outlined a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear program. Recent developments include intensified disputes over Hormuz navigation, with the US maintaining a naval presence and Iran denying control claims, alongside Pakistan's mediation efforts in mid-August to restart formal negotiations. Oman has hosted parallel Iran-focused discussions on the waterway. Trader focus on attendance by year-end reflects uncertainty over resumption timelines, potential high-level US envoys, and whether mediators or third parties can bridge gaps before the December 31 window closes amid ongoing low-intensity tensions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$165,694 交易量
2026-12-31
賈里德·庫什納
61%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
49%
穆罕默德·巴蓋爾·加利巴夫
47%
史蒂夫·威特考夫
44%
馬吉德·塔赫特-拉萬奇
48%
J.D. Vance
42%
穆罕默德·本·阿卜杜勒拉赫曼·阿勒薩尼
30%
馬蘇德·佩澤什基安
26%
拉斐爾·格羅西
33%
馬可·魯比奧
36%
卡澤姆·加里巴巴迪
23%
伊沙克·達爾
30%
尼克·斯圖爾特
22%
巴德爾·本·哈馬德·阿勒布賽義
22%
唐納德·川普
12%
埃斯邁爾·卡阿尼
8%
彼特·海格塞斯
6%
阿赫馬德·瓦希迪
5%
Mojtaba Khamenei
5%
$165,694 交易量
賈里德·庫什納
$8,084 交易量
61%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
$6,712 交易量
49%
穆罕默德·巴蓋爾·加利巴夫
$11,231 交易量
47%
史蒂夫·威特考夫
$7,891 交易量
44%
馬吉德·塔赫特-拉萬奇
$10,113 交易量
48%
J.D. Vance
$11,899 交易量
42%
穆罕默德·本·阿卜杜勒拉赫曼·阿勒薩尼
$11,007 交易量
30%
馬蘇德·佩澤什基安
$9,524 交易量
26%
拉斐爾·格羅西
$8,903 交易量
33%
馬可·魯比奧
$10,766 交易量
36%
卡澤姆·加里巴巴迪
$14,348 交易量
23%
伊沙克·達爾
$7,098 交易量
30%
尼克·斯圖爾特
$2,508 交易量
22%
巴德爾·本·哈馬德·阿勒布賽義
$11,780 交易量
22%
唐納德·川普
$81 交易量
12%
埃斯邁爾·卡阿尼
$9,883 交易量
8%
彼特·海格塞斯
$2,478 交易量
6%
阿赫馬德·瓦希迪
$2,198 交易量
5%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$19,189 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which outlined a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear program. Recent developments include intensified disputes over Hormuz navigation, with the US maintaining a naval presence and Iran denying control claims, alongside Pakistan's mediation efforts in mid-August to restart formal negotiations. Oman has hosted parallel Iran-focused discussions on the waterway. Trader focus on attendance by year-end reflects uncertainty over resumption timelines, potential high-level US envoys, and whether mediators or third parties can bridge gaps before the December 31 window closes amid ongoing low-intensity tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
交易量
$165,694結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which outlined a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear program. Recent developments include intensified disputes over Hormuz navigation, with the US maintaining a naval presence and Iran denying control claims, alongside Pakistan's mediation efforts in mid-August to restart formal negotiations. Oman has hosted parallel Iran-focused discussions on the waterway. Trader focus on attendance by year-end reflects uncertainty over resumption timelines, potential high-level US envoys, and whether mediators or third parties can bridge gaps before the December 31 window closes amid ongoing low-intensity tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$165,694結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which outlined a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear program. Recent developments include intensified disputes over Hormuz navigation, with the US maintaining a naval presence and Iran denying control claims, alongside Pakistan's mediation efforts in mid-August to restart formal negotiations. Oman has hosted parallel Iran-focused discussions on the waterway. Trader focus on attendance by year-end reflects uncertainty over resumption timelines, potential high-level US envoys, and whether mediators or third parties can bridge gaps before the December 31 window closes amid ongoing low-intensity tensions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions