The race to succeed retiring Representative Jerry Nadler in New York’s 12th District remains tightly contested because Assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher hold comparable records on housing affordability, labor issues, and AI regulation while splitting key endorsements and geographic bases across the East and West Sides. Older voters, projected to comprise 65 to 75 percent of the June 23 primary electorate, continue to favor candidates with established local ties and union support. High-profile entrants such as Jack Schlossberg add name recognition but have yet to consolidate broader backing. Recent candidate forums have underscored policy overlap, limiting clear differentiation and sustaining the even split reflected in current trader consensus. Late endorsements, turnout operations, or shifts in outside spending could still alter momentum before ballots are cast.