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icon for 誰將在Nancy Pelosi的國會席位（ CA-11 ）的初選中排名第一？
選舉·特朗普

誰將在Nancy Pelosi的國會席位（ CA-11 ）的初選中排名第一？

icon for 誰將在Nancy Pelosi的國會席位（ CA-11 ）的初選中排名第一？
選舉·特朗普

誰將在Nancy Pelosi的國會席位（ CA-11 ）的初選中排名第一？

史考特·維納 85%

Saikat Chakrabarti 7.5%

康妮·陳 2.3%

Cole Bettles <1%

Polymarket

$357,865 交易量

史考特·維納 85%

Saikat Chakrabarti 7.5%

康妮·陳 2.3%

Cole Bettles <1%

Polymarket

$357,865 交易量

史考特·維納

$39,987 交易量

85%

Saikat Chakrabarti

$23,596 交易量

8%

康妮·陳

$206,212 交易量

2%

Cole Bettles

$15,637 交易量

<1%

達倫·赫爾頓

$19,351 交易量

<1%

熊靖超

$41,386 交易量

<1%

David Ganezer

$11,696 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Scott Wiener holds a commanding lead in the race to succeed retiring Representative Nancy Pelosi in California’s 11th Congressional District, driven by consistent polling advantages and institutional support ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. A recent San Francisco Chronicle survey showed Wiener ahead across demographic groups, while New York Times aggregates place him roughly 40 points ahead of Saikat Chakrabarti. Wiener’s endorsement from the California Democratic Party, combined with strong fundraising from real estate interests and backing from LGBTQ+ organizations, reflects his established record as a state senator focused on housing and transportation policy. Chakrabarti, a progressive self-funder with Justice Democrats ties, and Supervisor Connie Chan, backed by labor unions, trail but remain competitive for the second advancement slot amid a crowded Democratic field. Trader consensus on these probabilities aligns with these measurable indicators of voter preference and organizational strength.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$357,865
結束日期
2026-06-02
市場開放時間
Nov 24, 2025, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Scott Wiener holds a commanding lead in the race to succeed retiring Representative Nancy Pelosi in California’s 11th Congressional District, driven by consistent polling advantages and institutional support ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. A recent San Francisco Chronicle survey showed Wiener ahead across demographic groups, while New York Times aggregates place him roughly 40 points ahead of Saikat Chakrabarti. Wiener’s endorsement from the California Democratic Party, combined with strong fundraising from real estate interests and backing from LGBTQ+ organizations, reflects his established record as a state senator focused on housing and transportation policy. Chakrabarti, a progressive self-funder with Justice Democrats ties, and Supervisor Connie Chan, backed by labor unions, trail but remain competitive for the second advancement slot amid a crowded Democratic field. Trader consensus on these probabilities aligns with these measurable indicators of voter preference and organizational strength.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$357,865
結束日期
2026-06-02
市場開放時間
Nov 24, 2025, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"誰將在Nancy Pelosi的國會席位（ CA-11 ）的初選中排名第一？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "史考特·維納" at 85%, followed by "Saikat Chakrabarti" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "誰將在Nancy Pelosi的國會席位（ CA-11 ）的初選中排名第一？" has generated $357.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "誰將在Nancy Pelosi的國會席位（ CA-11 ）的初選中排名第一？," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "誰將在Nancy Pelosi的國會席位（ CA-11 ）的初選中排名第一？" is "史考特·維納" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Saikat Chakrabarti" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "誰將在Nancy Pelosi的國會席位（ CA-11 ）的初選中排名第一？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.