Canada's first recorded annual population decline of 0.2 percent in 2025, driven by sharp reductions in non-permanent residents following federal immigration policy tightening, sets the baseline for this market. The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan caps permanent resident admissions at 380,000 while targeting far fewer new temporary residents, with the Parliamentary Budget Officer projecting flat overall growth for the year as net outflows moderate. Traders assign a 60 percent probability to "No" because these measures are expected to produce a smaller contraction than the prior record drop, though ongoing quarterly outflows and any surge in study permit refusals or emigration could still intensify the decline before Statistics Canada releases updated estimates.