Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions center on sanctions, a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, limited strikes, and tanker attacks rather than large-scale ground operations. Recent statements from President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasize that economic pressure is delivering results without requiring renewed major combat, describing additional strikes as highly unlikely if talks advance on nuclear issues and Hormuz access. Quiet diplomacy mediated by Qatar continues, with both sides signaling openness to further talks amid stalled proposals. The brief window before 2027 and post-midterm focus on domestic priorities reinforce trader expectations that full-scale invasion remains improbable absent a sharp escalation or policy shift.