The high probability assigned to no U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 reflects trader assessment of a shift from direct combat operations toward sustained economic and naval pressure. After U.S.-Israeli airstrikes beginning February 28, 2026, a brief ceasefire, and a June memorandum of understanding on the Strait of Hormuz, renewed Iranian shipping attacks prompted resumed U.S. strikes and a blockade rather than ground commitments. As of mid-August 2026, the Trump administration has emphasized maximum sanctions—including an announced “economic D-Day” targeting Iranian revenue sources—and diplomatic channels over territorial operations. Structural barriers such as Iran’s size, terrain, and proxy capabilities, combined with existing military resource strain, reinforce the view that policymakers favor containment through sanctions, blockades, and targeted strikes within the resolution window.