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icon for 美國會在2027年之前入侵伊朗嗎？
地緣政治·中東

美國會在2027年之前入侵伊朗嗎？

icon for 美國會在2027年之前入侵伊朗嗎？
地緣政治·中東

美國會在2027年之前入侵伊朗嗎？

12月 31

12月 31

是

31% 機率
Polymarket

$28,733,932 交易量

是

31% 機率
Polymarket

$28,733,932 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The Trump administration's strategy of sustained airstrikes on Iranian military sites, naval blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, and fresh sanctions targeting oil shipments to China has reinforced trader views that a full U.S. ground invasion remains unlikely before 2027. As of mid-May 2026, President Trump rejected Iran's latest ceasefire proposal while signaling openness to talks and limited special operations rather than large-scale troop commitments, echoing Pentagon assessments that prioritize precision strikes and regime pressure over costly occupation. With over 50,000 U.S. forces deployed regionally since early 2026 and ongoing attrition tactics, the market assigns a 69.5% probability to "No," reflecting historical precedent against prolonged Middle East ground wars and the administration's focus on diplomatic leverage alongside targeted military actions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$28,733,932
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The Trump administration's strategy of sustained airstrikes on Iranian military sites, naval blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, and fresh sanctions targeting oil shipments to China has reinforced trader views that a full U.S. ground invasion remains unlikely before 2027. As of mid-May 2026, President Trump rejected Iran's latest ceasefire proposal while signaling openness to talks and limited special operations rather than large-scale troop commitments, echoing Pentagon assessments that prioritize precision strikes and regime pressure over costly occupation. With over 50,000 U.S. forces deployed regionally since early 2026 and ongoing attrition tactics, the market assigns a 69.5% probability to "No," reflecting historical precedent against prolonged Middle East ground wars and the administration's focus on diplomatic leverage alongside targeted military actions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$28,733,932
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美國會在2027年之前入侵伊朗嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "美國會在2027年前入侵伊朗嗎？" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美國會在2027年之前入侵伊朗嗎？" has generated $28.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美國會在2027年之前入侵伊朗嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美國會在2027年之前入侵伊朗嗎？" is "美國會在2027年前入侵伊朗嗎？" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美國會在2027年之前入侵伊朗嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.