Recent U.S. airstrikes on IRGC targets in southern Iran, launched in early September 2026 in response to attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, reflect continued pressure without commitment to ground operations. The Trump administration has pursued limited strikes, sanctions enforcement, and mediated talks following the June memorandum of understanding, while analysts note that a large-scale invasion would require tens of thousands of troops and carry high costs amid midterm elections. Official statements emphasize degrading maritime and proxy threats rather than regime change or occupation, aligning with trader consensus that direct U.S. invasion remains unlikely before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
18% 機率
$66,412,366 交易量
$66,412,366 交易量
2026-12-31
是
18% 機率
$66,412,366 交易量
$66,412,366 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S. airstrikes on IRGC targets in southern Iran, launched in early September 2026 in response to attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, reflect continued pressure without commitment to ground operations. The Trump administration has pursued limited strikes, sanctions enforcement, and mediated talks following the June memorandum of understanding, while analysts note that a large-scale invasion would require tens of thousands of troops and carry high costs amid midterm elections. Official statements emphasize degrading maritime and proxy threats rather than regime change or occupation, aligning with trader consensus that direct U.S. invasion remains unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
交易量
$66,412,366結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S. airstrikes on IRGC targets in southern Iran, launched in early September 2026 in response to attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, reflect continued pressure without commitment to ground operations. The Trump administration has pursued limited strikes, sanctions enforcement, and mediated talks following the June memorandum of understanding, while analysts note that a large-scale invasion would require tens of thousands of troops and carry high costs amid midterm elections. Official statements emphasize degrading maritime and proxy threats rather than regime change or occupation, aligning with trader consensus that direct U.S. invasion remains unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$66,412,366結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETRecent U.S. airstrikes on IRGC targets in southern Iran, launched in early September 2026 in response to attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, reflect continued pressure without commitment to ground operations. The Trump administration has pursued limited strikes, sanctions enforcement, and mediated talks following the June memorandum of understanding, while analysts note that a large-scale invasion would require tens of thousands of troops and carry high costs amid midterm elections. Official statements emphasize degrading maritime and proxy threats rather than regime change or occupation, aligning with trader consensus that direct U.S. invasion remains unlikely before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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