The formidable barriers embedded in the constitutional amendment process explain why traders assign just a 6.2 percent chance that presidential term limits will be repealed in 2026. Any change to the 22nd Amendment would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification in three-quarters of the states, a threshold that has succeeded only twenty-seven times in U.S. history and typically spans years rather than a single calendar year. Recent congressional proposals to adjust limits for non-consecutive terms have generated little momentum, while President Trump’s own public statements have repeatedly acknowledged the existing restrictions. With midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 and divided partisan control likely to persist, the calendar leaves scant time for the necessary legislative and state-level steps to conclude before year-end.