Constitutional barriers remain the dominant factor behind traders' 97.5% implied probability against repeal of presidential term limits in 2026. Any change requires a constitutional amendment passing both chambers of Congress by two-thirds majorities before ratification by three-fourths of the states, a threshold unmet since the 1990s and further complicated by the 2026 midterm elections that could alter congressional control. No formal legislative proposals or coordinated state-level efforts have advanced in the current session, and competing priorities such as appropriations, judicial confirmations, and policy implementation continue to occupy legislative calendars. While a unified government could theoretically accelerate the process, historical precedent and the need for broad bipartisan or cross-state support make swift action improbable within the calendar year. Late-session developments or unexpected shifts in congressional composition could still introduce limited volatility before year-end resolution.