Traders assign a 98.5% probability to Xi Jinping remaining married to Peng Liyuan through the end of 2026 due to the complete absence of credible public signals of marital strain or separation. Chinese leadership maintains strict information controls over personal matters, and the couple continues joint official appearances and diplomatic activities without interruption. Peng maintains her established role as first lady, with no reports of altered status or withdrawal from public duties. Historical precedent shows elite divorces are rare and tightly managed when they occur. Realistic factors that could still alter the outcome include sudden health developments affecting either spouse or an unforeseen political crisis that prompts an unannounced personal change, though neither scenario shows supporting evidence at present.