NASA's continuous monitoring of near-Earth objects through systems like Sentry and Scout has detected no asteroid or meteoroid capable of delivering 1 megaton of impact energy in 2026, with all tracked close approaches—such as the safe flyby of 2026 JH2—remaining well below hazardous thresholds. Smaller fireballs and meteorites, including a March event over Ohio and European sightings, released far less energy and disintegrated harmlessly. With August nearly complete and no credible reports of an undetected large impactor, trader consensus reflects the low statistical probability of such an event in the remaining months. While an unforeseen comet or observational gap could theoretically alter outcomes, established planetary defense networks make this highly improbable before year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
2% 概率
$116,343 交易量
$116,343 交易量
2026-12-30
是
2% 概率
$116,343 交易量
$116,343 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's continuous monitoring of near-Earth objects through systems like Sentry and Scout has detected no asteroid or meteoroid capable of delivering 1 megaton of impact energy in 2026, with all tracked close approaches—such as the safe flyby of 2026 JH2—remaining well below hazardous thresholds. Smaller fireballs and meteorites, including a March event over Ohio and European sightings, released far less energy and disintegrated harmlessly. With August nearly complete and no credible reports of an undetected large impactor, trader consensus reflects the low statistical probability of such an event in the remaining months. While an unforeseen comet or observational gap could theoretically alter outcomes, established planetary defense networks make this highly improbable before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
交易量
$116,343结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's continuous monitoring of near-Earth objects through systems like Sentry and Scout has detected no asteroid or meteoroid capable of delivering 1 megaton of impact energy in 2026, with all tracked close approaches—such as the safe flyby of 2026 JH2—remaining well below hazardous thresholds. Smaller fireballs and meteorites, including a March event over Ohio and European sightings, released far less energy and disintegrated harmlessly. With August nearly complete and no credible reports of an undetected large impactor, trader consensus reflects the low statistical probability of such an event in the remaining months. While an unforeseen comet or observational gap could theoretically alter outcomes, established planetary defense networks make this highly improbable before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$116,343结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's continuous monitoring of near-Earth objects through systems like Sentry and Scout has detected no asteroid or meteoroid capable of delivering 1 megaton of impact energy in 2026, with all tracked close approaches—such as the safe flyby of 2026 JH2—remaining well below hazardous thresholds. Smaller fireballs and meteorites, including a March event over Ohio and European sightings, released far less energy and disintegrated harmlessly. With August nearly complete and no credible reports of an undetected large impactor, trader consensus reflects the low statistical probability of such an event in the remaining months. While an unforeseen comet or observational gap could theoretically alter outcomes, established planetary defense networks make this highly improbable before year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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