Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential contest because recent polling shows him consolidating the bulk of right-wing support behind the Liberal Party candidacy endorsed by his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro. Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party maintains a narrow first-round lead in surveys such as Quaest and Futura, typically in the low-to-mid 40s, while Flávio trails but remains the strongest challenger at 33–38 percent. A fragmented field featuring lower-polling figures including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos reduces the chance any single alternative draws enough votes to displace Flávio from second. Recent simulated runoff data showing the two frontrunners statistically tied further reinforces market pricing by highlighting the polarized contest and the limited room for other candidates to surge before voting begins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 62%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦 15%
雷南·桑托斯 6.7%
Romeu Zema 6.2%
$3,522,540 交易量
$3,522,540 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
62%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
15%
雷南·桑托斯
7%
Romeu Zema
6%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
5%
费尔南多·哈达
3%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
2%
特雷莎·克里斯蒂娜
1%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
1%
赫拉尔多·阿尔克明
1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔
<1%
奥尔多·雷贝洛
<1%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
<1%
埃尔德·巴尔巴略
<1%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
<1%
爱德华多·莱特
<1%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 62%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦 15%
雷南·桑托斯 6.7%
Romeu Zema 6.2%
$3,522,540 交易量
$3,522,540 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$56,395 交易量
62%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
$67,153 交易量
15%
雷南·桑托斯
$995,076 交易量
7%
Romeu Zema
$256,381 交易量
6%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
$72,825 交易量
5%
费尔南多·哈达
$651,329 交易量
3%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
$56,008 交易量
2%
特雷莎·克里斯蒂娜
$2,848 交易量
1%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
$289,157 交易量
1%
赫拉尔多·阿尔克明
$123,364 交易量
1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
$111,040 交易量
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔
$642,631 交易量
<1%
奥尔多·雷贝洛
$29,825 交易量
<1%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
$48,401 交易量
<1%
埃尔德·巴尔巴略
$2,246 交易量
<1%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
$77,363 交易量
<1%
爱德华多·莱特
$40,500 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential contest because recent polling shows him consolidating the bulk of right-wing support behind the Liberal Party candidacy endorsed by his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro. Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party maintains a narrow first-round lead in surveys such as Quaest and Futura, typically in the low-to-mid 40s, while Flávio trails but remains the strongest challenger at 33–38 percent. A fragmented field featuring lower-polling figures including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos reduces the chance any single alternative draws enough votes to displace Flávio from second. Recent simulated runoff data showing the two frontrunners statistically tied further reinforces market pricing by highlighting the polarized contest and the limited room for other candidates to surge before voting begins.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$3,522,540结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential contest because recent polling shows him consolidating the bulk of right-wing support behind the Liberal Party candidacy endorsed by his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro. Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party maintains a narrow first-round lead in surveys such as Quaest and Futura, typically in the low-to-mid 40s, while Flávio trails but remains the strongest challenger at 33–38 percent. A fragmented field featuring lower-polling figures including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos reduces the chance any single alternative draws enough votes to displace Flávio from second. Recent simulated runoff data showing the two frontrunners statistically tied further reinforces market pricing by highlighting the polarized contest and the limited room for other candidates to surge before voting begins.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$3,522,540结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential contest because recent polling shows him consolidating the bulk of right-wing support behind the Liberal Party candidacy endorsed by his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro. Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party maintains a narrow first-round lead in surveys such as Quaest and Futura, typically in the low-to-mid 40s, while Flávio trails but remains the strongest challenger at 33–38 percent. A fragmented field featuring lower-polling figures including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos reduces the chance any single alternative draws enough votes to displace Flávio from second. Recent simulated runoff data showing the two frontrunners statistically tied further reinforces market pricing by highlighting the polarized contest and the limited room for other candidates to surge before voting begins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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