The tight contest for third place in Brazil’s October 2026 presidential first round reflects the fragmented right-wing field, with early polls showing Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro well ahead while Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado register low single digits. Zema’s profile as a former Minas Gerais governor and Renan Santos’s leadership of the Free Brazil Movement keep their implied probabilities closely matched, each drawing support from voters seeking economic liberalization and anti-corruption platforms distinct from the Bolsonaro brand. Caiado’s more traditional conservative positioning from Goiás trails as traders weigh limited consolidation before party conventions and candidate registration this summer. Any withdrawal, major endorsement, or polling surge among these contenders could create separation ahead of the October vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于罗梅乌·泽马 32%
雷南·桑托斯 31%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多 19%
米歇尔·博索纳罗 5.4%
$282,242 交易量
$282,242 交易量
2026-10-04
罗梅乌·泽马
32%
雷南·桑托斯
31%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
19%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
5%
费尔南多·阿达
4%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
3%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
1%
塔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
1%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
1%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
1%
杰拉尔多·阿尔克明
1%
爱德华多·莱特
1%
特雷莎·克里斯蒂娜
1%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
<1%
哈金纽·儒尼奥尔
<1%
埃尔德·巴尔巴略
<1%
阿尔多·雷贝洛
<1%
罗梅乌·泽马 32%
雷南·桑托斯 31%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多 19%
米歇尔·博索纳罗 5.4%
$282,242 交易量
$282,242 交易量
2026-10-04
罗梅乌·泽马
$10,655 交易量
32%
雷南·桑托斯
$63,651 交易量
31%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
$16,728 交易量
19%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
$4,817 交易量
5%
费尔南多·阿达
$14,354 交易量
4%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$7,036 交易量
3%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
$6,116 交易量
1%
塔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
$4,328 交易量
1%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
$4,092 交易量
1%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
$5,286 交易量
1%
杰拉尔多·阿尔克明
$4,260 交易量
1%
爱德华多·莱特
$2,559 交易量
1%
特雷莎·克里斯蒂娜
$654 交易量
1%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
$39,622 交易量
<1%
哈金纽·儒尼奥尔
$93,195 交易量
<1%
埃尔德·巴尔巴略
$354 交易量
<1%
阿尔多·雷贝洛
$4,536 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).The tight contest for third place in Brazil’s October 2026 presidential first round reflects the fragmented right-wing field, with early polls showing Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro well ahead while Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado register low single digits. Zema’s profile as a former Minas Gerais governor and Renan Santos’s leadership of the Free Brazil Movement keep their implied probabilities closely matched, each drawing support from voters seeking economic liberalization and anti-corruption platforms distinct from the Bolsonaro brand. Caiado’s more traditional conservative positioning from Goiás trails as traders weigh limited consolidation before party conventions and candidate registration this summer. Any withdrawal, major endorsement, or polling surge among these contenders could create separation ahead of the October vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
交易量
$282,242结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).The tight contest for third place in Brazil’s October 2026 presidential first round reflects the fragmented right-wing field, with early polls showing Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro well ahead while Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado register low single digits. Zema’s profile as a former Minas Gerais governor and Renan Santos’s leadership of the Free Brazil Movement keep their implied probabilities closely matched, each drawing support from voters seeking economic liberalization and anti-corruption platforms distinct from the Bolsonaro brand. Caiado’s more traditional conservative positioning from Goiás trails as traders weigh limited consolidation before party conventions and candidate registration this summer. Any withdrawal, major endorsement, or polling surge among these contenders could create separation ahead of the October vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$282,242结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The tight contest for third place in Brazil’s October 2026 presidential first round reflects the fragmented right-wing field, with early polls showing Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro well ahead while Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado register low single digits. Zema’s profile as a former Minas Gerais governor and Renan Santos’s leadership of the Free Brazil Movement keep their implied probabilities closely matched, each drawing support from voters seeking economic liberalization and anti-corruption platforms distinct from the Bolsonaro brand. Caiado’s more traditional conservative positioning from Goiás trails as traders weigh limited consolidation before party conventions and candidate registration this summer. Any withdrawal, major endorsement, or polling surge among these contenders could create separation ahead of the October vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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