Austin Rogers leads the FL-02 Republican primary market as the frontrunner ahead of the August 18 vote to replace retiring incumbent Neal Dunn. Recent national endorsements from House leaders including Jim Jordan and Guy Reschenthaler, combined with internal polls showing him ahead of Keith Gross by several points, have reinforced trader consensus around his local roots, experience as former counsel to Sen. Rick Scott, and campaign momentum. Gross remains the clearest alternative through substantial self-funding, though his share trails. Lower-probability candidates such as Evan Power, Jim Norton, and others register minimal support in both polling and fundraising data released in the final weeks. The tight timeline leaves limited room for late shifts before primary resolution.