Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19 at 90.5% implied probability, driven by mounting leaks and testing signals ahead of Google I/O on that date, including brief appearances of Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini app model selector around May 5 and its presence in LM Arena benchmarks. These developments, combined with Vertex AI's deprecation of older Flash models and historical I/O patterns for major large language model announcements, have solidified trader sentiment that Google DeepMind will debut the upgraded AI with enhanced tool calling and reasoning capabilities to compete against GPT-5.6 and Claude Opus. Realistic challenges include a potential preview-only rollout, last-minute technical delays, or a surprise pivot to Gemini 3.5, as product timelines in AI often slip despite hype.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于May 19 91%
May 18 5.0%
May 20 2.0%
No release by May 31 1.6%
$290,784 交易量
$290,784 交易量
2026-05-31
May 15
<1%
May 16
<1%
May 17
1%
May 18
5%
May 19
91%
May 20
2%
May 21
<1%
May 22
1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
<1%
May 26
<1%
May 27
<1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
2%
May 19 91%
May 18 5.0%
May 20 2.0%
No release by May 31 1.6%
$290,784 交易量
$290,784 交易量
2026-05-31
May 15
$7,432 交易量
<1%
May 16
$6,738 交易量
<1%
May 17
$9,392 交易量
1%
May 18
$34,894 交易量
5%
May 19
$106,396 交易量
91%
May 20
$15,896 交易量
2%
May 21
$9,806 交易量
<1%
May 22
$11,368 交易量
1%
May 23
$3,944 交易量
<1%
May 24
$4,587 交易量
<1%
May 25
$3,047 交易量
<1%
May 26
$3,603 交易量
<1%
May 27
$4,073 交易量
<1%
May 28
$2,721 交易量
<1%
May 29
$2,245 交易量
<1%
May 30
$5,981 交易量
<1%
May 31
$5,367 交易量
<1%
No release by May 31
$19,276 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19 at 90.5% implied probability, driven by mounting leaks and testing signals ahead of Google I/O on that date, including brief appearances of Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini app model selector around May 5 and its presence in LM Arena benchmarks. These developments, combined with Vertex AI's deprecation of older Flash models and historical I/O patterns for major large language model announcements, have solidified trader sentiment that Google DeepMind will debut the upgraded AI with enhanced tool calling and reasoning capabilities to compete against GPT-5.6 and Claude Opus. Realistic challenges include a potential preview-only rollout, last-minute technical delays, or a surprise pivot to Gemini 3.5, as product timelines in AI often slip despite hype.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
交易量
$290,784结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19 at 90.5% implied probability, driven by mounting leaks and testing signals ahead of Google I/O on that date, including brief appearances of Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini app model selector around May 5 and its presence in LM Arena benchmarks. These developments, combined with Vertex AI's deprecation of older Flash models and historical I/O patterns for major large language model announcements, have solidified trader sentiment that Google DeepMind will debut the upgraded AI with enhanced tool calling and reasoning capabilities to compete against GPT-5.6 and Claude Opus. Realistic challenges include a potential preview-only rollout, last-minute technical delays, or a surprise pivot to Gemini 3.5, as product timelines in AI often slip despite hype.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$290,784结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19 at 90.5% implied probability, driven by mounting leaks and testing signals ahead of Google I/O on that date, including brief appearances of Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini app model selector around May 5 and its presence in LM Arena benchmarks. These developments, combined with Vertex AI's deprecation of older Flash models and historical I/O patterns for major large language model announcements, have solidified trader sentiment that Google DeepMind will debut the upgraded AI with enhanced tool calling and reasoning capabilities to compete against GPT-5.6 and Claude Opus. Realistic challenges include a potential preview-only rollout, last-minute technical delays, or a surprise pivot to Gemini 3.5, as product timelines in AI often slip despite hype.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题