National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance currently favors a strengthening high-pressure ridge across north Texas, promoting clear skies, southerly flow, and modest boundary-layer mixing that supports a highest temperature in Dallas on May 18 most likely in the upper 80s to low 90s. This narrow ensemble spread—modestly above the May climatological normal near 85 °F—underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds among 88–89 °F, 86–87 °F, and 90–91 °F, with small divergences arising from differences in simulated afternoon mixing depth and any weak frontal passage timing. Low overall model dispersion keeps downside scenarios such as 86–87 °F viable only if boundary-layer moisture increases slightly, while probabilities above 92 °F remain limited absent stronger subsidence or drier air advection.