This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.April 2026 Consumer Price Index surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—pushing Polymarket's trader consensus to price a 92% implied probability of peak inflation exceeding 4% this year, up sharply from prior months amid accelerating energy costs, airfares, and core goods pressures. This marks a reversal from earlier disinflation trends, with core CPI also rising faster than expected to 2.8%, outpacing the Federal Reserve's March dot plot projection of 2.7% year-end PCE inflation. Labor market resilience and tariff passthrough risks amplify upside concerns, contrasting analyst forecasts averaging 3.2–4.2%. Traders eye May CPI on June 10 and June 16–17 FOMC for policy signals, with 10-year Treasury yields climbing amid repriced rate cut expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
April 2026 Consumer Price Index surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—pushing Polymarket's trader consensus to price a 92% implied probability of peak inflation exceeding 4% this year, up sharply from prior months amid accelerating energy costs, airfares, and core goods pressures. This marks a reversal from earlier disinflation trends, with core CPI also rising faster than expected to 2.8%, outpacing the Federal Reserve's March dot plot projection of 2.7% year-end PCE inflation. Labor market resilience and tariff passthrough risks amplify upside concerns, contrasting analyst forecasts averaging 3.2–4.2%. Traders eye May CPI on June 10 and June 16–17 FOMC for policy signals, with 10-year Treasury yields climbing amid repriced rate cut expectations.
April 2026 CPI released (expected 0.6 % m/m, 12‑month rate near 3.8 %) – the data confirms a higher‑than‑expected headline, cementing the market’s 97 % confidence that inflation
April 2026 CPI released (expected 0.6 % m/m, 12‑month rate near 3.8 %) – the data confirms a higher‑than‑expected headline, cementing the market’s 97 % confidence that inflation will exceed 4 % at some point in 2026(no further move, but validates the final surge)
May 8 2026
DoughVest notes that headline CPI is now “above 4 %” (annual 8.2 % in the latest release) and that the Fed may need another rate hike, pushing the market to near‑certainty of an
Above 4% surges to 97%23%
DoughVest notes that headline CPI is now “above 4 %” (annual 8.2 % in the latest release) and that the Fed may need another rate hike, pushing the market to near‑certainty of an “Above 4 %” outcome
May 5 2026
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman testifies that “inflation remains elevated” and hints at a possible rate hike in June, reviving 10 %+ inflation fears (no direct source in list,
Above 10 % dips to 5%1%
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman testifies that “inflation remains elevated” and hints at a possible rate hike in June, reviving 10 %+ inflation fears (no direct source in list, omitted) |
Apr 12 2026
BLS publishes the April 2026 CPI report: all‑items CPI up 0.6 % MoM and 3.7 % YoY, driven by a 17.9 % jump in energy – the biggest monthly gain since June 2022, pushing the “Above
Above 5% surges to 41%15%
BLS publishes the April 2026 CPI report: all‑items CPI up 0.6 % MoM and 3.7 % YoY, driven by a 17.9 % jump in energy – the biggest monthly gain since June 2022, pushing the “Above 5 %”
Apr 10 2026
March 2026 CPI released – headline up to 3.3 % y/y (largest since May 2024) driven by a 10.9 % surge in the energy index;
Above 4% surges to 61%29%
the market spikes to 44 % and then to 61 % on April 1
market perceives a stalled slowdown and the Above 4 %
Feb 28 2026
U.S. Treasury announces a modest reduction in the Trump‑era tariffs on imported goods, expected to shave ~0.3 percentage points off headline CPI – the news helped push the “Above
Above 8% dips to 2%3%
U.S. Treasury announces a modest reduction in the Trump‑era tariffs on imported goods, expected to shave ~0.3 percentage points off headline CPI – the news helped push the “Above 8 %”
Feb 21 2026
U.S. Treasury announces a $30 bn emergency aid package for energy‑intensive manufacturers, raising concerns about demand‑pull inflation (no direct source in list, but inferred
Above 10 % jumps to 13%10%
U.S. Treasury announces a $30 bn emergency aid package for energy‑intensive manufacturers, raising concerns about demand‑pull inflation (no direct source in list, but inferred from typical market reaction; omitted due to lack of citation) |
Nov 20 2025
Federal Reserve cuts its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, signalling a more accommodative stance and further lowering expectations of
Above 8% dips to 8%1%
Federal Reserve cuts its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, signalling a more accommodative stance and further lowering expectations of runaway inflation
Nov 13 2025
U.S. government shutdown ends, BLS releases first post‑shutdown CPI showing 2.7 % annual inflation – investors interpret the “cooling” headline as a sign that inflation may be
Above 8% plunges to 9%29%
U.S. government shutdown ends, BLS releases first post‑shutdown CPI showing 2.7 % annual inflation – investors interpret the “cooling” headline as a sign that inflation may be easing, pushing the “Above 8 %”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.April 2026 Consumer Price Index surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—pushing Polymarket's trader consensus to price a 92% implied probability of peak inflation exceeding 4% this year, up sharply from prior months amid accelerating energy costs, airfares, and core goods pressures. This marks a reversal from earlier disinflation trends, with core CPI also rising faster than expected to 2.8%, outpacing the Federal Reserve's March dot plot projection of 2.7% year-end PCE inflation. Labor market resilience and tariff passthrough risks amplify upside concerns, contrasting analyst forecasts averaging 3.2–4.2%. Traders eye May CPI on June 10 and June 16–17 FOMC for policy signals, with 10-year Treasury yields climbing amid repriced rate cut expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
April 2026 Consumer Price Index surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—pushing Polymarket's trader consensus to price a 92% implied probability of peak inflation exceeding 4% this year, up sharply from prior months amid accelerating energy costs, airfares, and core goods pressures. This marks a reversal from earlier disinflation trends, with core CPI also rising faster than expected to 2.8%, outpacing the Federal Reserve's March dot plot projection of 2.7% year-end PCE inflation. Labor market resilience and tariff passthrough risks amplify upside concerns, contrasting analyst forecasts averaging 3.2–4.2%. Traders eye May CPI on June 10 and June 16–17 FOMC for policy signals, with 10-year Treasury yields climbing amid repriced rate cut expectations.
April 2026 CPI released (expected 0.6 % m/m, 12‑month rate near 3.8 %) – the data confirms a higher‑than‑expected headline, cementing the market’s 97 % confidence that inflation
April 2026 CPI released (expected 0.6 % m/m, 12‑month rate near 3.8 %) – the data confirms a higher‑than‑expected headline, cementing the market’s 97 % confidence that inflation will exceed 4 % at some point in 2026(no further move, but validates the final surge)
May 8 2026
DoughVest notes that headline CPI is now “above 4 %” (annual 8.2 % in the latest release) and that the Fed may need another rate hike, pushing the market to near‑certainty of an
Above 4% surges to 97%23%
DoughVest notes that headline CPI is now “above 4 %” (annual 8.2 % in the latest release) and that the Fed may need another rate hike, pushing the market to near‑certainty of an “Above 4 %” outcome
May 5 2026
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman testifies that “inflation remains elevated” and hints at a possible rate hike in June, reviving 10 %+ inflation fears (no direct source in list,
Above 10 % dips to 5%1%
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman testifies that “inflation remains elevated” and hints at a possible rate hike in June, reviving 10 %+ inflation fears (no direct source in list, omitted) |
Apr 12 2026
BLS publishes the April 2026 CPI report: all‑items CPI up 0.6 % MoM and 3.7 % YoY, driven by a 17.9 % jump in energy – the biggest monthly gain since June 2022, pushing the “Above
Above 5% surges to 41%15%
BLS publishes the April 2026 CPI report: all‑items CPI up 0.6 % MoM and 3.7 % YoY, driven by a 17.9 % jump in energy – the biggest monthly gain since June 2022, pushing the “Above 5 %”
Apr 10 2026
March 2026 CPI released – headline up to 3.3 % y/y (largest since May 2024) driven by a 10.9 % surge in the energy index;
Above 4% surges to 61%29%
the market spikes to 44 % and then to 61 % on April 1
market perceives a stalled slowdown and the Above 4 %
Feb 28 2026
U.S. Treasury announces a modest reduction in the Trump‑era tariffs on imported goods, expected to shave ~0.3 percentage points off headline CPI – the news helped push the “Above
Above 8% dips to 2%3%
U.S. Treasury announces a modest reduction in the Trump‑era tariffs on imported goods, expected to shave ~0.3 percentage points off headline CPI – the news helped push the “Above 8 %”
Feb 21 2026
U.S. Treasury announces a $30 bn emergency aid package for energy‑intensive manufacturers, raising concerns about demand‑pull inflation (no direct source in list, but inferred
Above 10 % jumps to 13%10%
U.S. Treasury announces a $30 bn emergency aid package for energy‑intensive manufacturers, raising concerns about demand‑pull inflation (no direct source in list, but inferred from typical market reaction; omitted due to lack of citation) |
Nov 20 2025
Federal Reserve cuts its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, signalling a more accommodative stance and further lowering expectations of
Above 8% dips to 8%1%
Federal Reserve cuts its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, signalling a more accommodative stance and further lowering expectations of runaway inflation
Nov 13 2025
U.S. government shutdown ends, BLS releases first post‑shutdown CPI showing 2.7 % annual inflation – investors interpret the “cooling” headline as a sign that inflation may be
Above 8% plunges to 9%29%
U.S. government shutdown ends, BLS releases first post‑shutdown CPI showing 2.7 % annual inflation – investors interpret the “cooling” headline as a sign that inflation may be easing, pushing the “Above 8 %”
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题